Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

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Chapter I. Observations of Global Climate Change and its impact on the hydrological cycle The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1988. The IPCC has involved a large number of leading scientific experts in its efforts to assess scientific information on climate change and its impacts. The assessment reports published by this panel can be considered as an expression of the state of the art of the science in this field, and the following introduction to global climate change is thus largely based on the work of the IPCC, particularly its third assessment report (TAR), that was published in 2001 [Houghton et al., 2001]. I.A. The Temperature Record of the Earth Last 140 years Global temperature changes within approximately the last one and a half century can be estimated based on reported surface temperature measurements; for recent years also observations from satellites are available. An analysis of thermometer data on a global scale led the IPCC to the conclusion, that the average global temperature over land surfaces has risen by 0.6 ± 0.2°C in the period from 1861 to 2000. The warming (see Fig. I.1) has mainly taken place in the periods from 1910 to 1945 and from 1976 to 2000. The ten warmest years in the series have occurred after 1980, seven of them have occurred in the 1990’s. . Fig. I.1. Temperature changes in the past 140 years and in the past millennium (IPCC 2001) 10
Changes in the diurnal variation of temperature in recent decades have also been analysed: Observations from 1950 to 1993 show an increase in maximum daily temperature of approximately 0.1°C per decade while the increase in the minimum daily temperature is approximately 0.2°C per decade. Thus the diurnal temperature variations have decreased. One of the reasons for this may be an increase in cloud cover, since clouds reduce the diurnal variations in temperature by reducing both warming during the day and cooling in the night. Also aerosols may play a role, as will be discussed later. Variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been analysed based on in situ measurements as well as, for the most recent years, satellite observations. The global average SST shows a trend quite similar to that of the land surface temperature up to 1976, but the increasing trend seen after 1976 is somewhat less pronounced than for the land surface temperatures. The temperature changes in the lowest 8 kms of the atmosphere since the late 1950’s have been evaluated based on balloon soundings; the overall temperature increases were found to be similar to those of the surface of approximately 0.1 0 C per decade. However, since 1979, both balloon and satellite observations of the lower atmosphere have shown significantly slower rates of temperature increase than at the surface. One of the reasons for this difference may be the depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer, leading to a cooling of the lower stratosphere. The observed inter-annual fluctuations of surface temperatures are significantly influenced by large-scale natural oscillations in the climate system, of which the most important is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These phenomena and their possible interaction with global warming will be discussed later. Last 1000 years In order to judge whether the temperature rise during the last 140 years is likely to be part of the natural variability of climate, temperature records over much longer time scales must be constructed. The last 1000 years, where the astronomical conditions of the Earth have been close to the present situation, are of particular importance for assessing the relevant background variability. Reports of instrumental temperature observations for this period are scarce, so other means of evaluating temperature variations have to be used, typically based on the fact that many physical, chemical or biological processes depend strongly on temperature, and these processes sometimes leave ‘proxies’ for temperature change. Tree rings are an example of a high-resolution proxy climate indicator, since their width and density are related to climate and allow the reconstruction of warm season and annual temperatures several centuries or more into the past. However, tree ring growth is influenced by other factors than temperature and thus it appears that tree ring data are most useful when other types of proxy information about temperatures supplement them. Marine corals are another temperature proxy that has allowed us to reconstruct past variations in climate in tropical and sub-tropical oceans with annual or seasonal time resolution. Climatic variations are reflected in the chemical and isotopic characteristics of the coral skeleton as well as in density and fluorescence. Also ice cores from polar or mountain regions provide possibility for assessing temperature changes in the past, since they in various ways reflect temperature variations, e.g. by their isotopic composition. 11
Page 1 and 2: Climate Change and the European Wat
Page 3 and 4: European Commission- Joint Research
Page 7 and 8: At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
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Page 13 and 14: Fugure I.2. (a) Maximum grid covera
Page 15 and 16: century. This corresponds to a sea
Page 17 and 18: Other causes Other causes of climat
Page 19 and 20: tropospheric ozone are photochemica
Page 21 and 22: Figure. I.4. Radiative forcings and
Page 23 and 24: There are two indirect effects of a
Page 25 and 26: The projected warming is not unifor
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Page 31 and 32: Aerosols and climate change in the
Page 33 and 34: precipitation intensities have been
Page 35 and 36: Chapter III. The Hydrologic Cycle I
Page 37 and 38: Figure III.2. Long-term average ann
Page 39 and 40: Figure III.4. Projected change in s
Page 41 and 42: eduction in the rate of evaporation
Page 43 and 44: characteristics may or may not be u
Page 45 and 46: temperatures potentially lead to hi
Page 47 and 48: Chapter IV.A. Proxy indicators of C
Page 49 and 50: Mean Air Temperature (Dec.-March) [
Page 51 and 52: correlation coefficient -0.4 -0.3 -
Page 53 and 54: Chapter IV. B. The Impact of Climat
Page 55 and 56: numbers refer to water bodies bigge
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sufficient resolution and accuracy
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Windermere in the English Lake Dist
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their vertical structure. In partic
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have recently described a method th
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The available evidence suggests tha
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1979). In contrast, heavy rain incr
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The projected increase in the atmos
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Aulacoseira spp. favour the changed
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vertical bars are a simple measure
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values, with an upper limit of 30°
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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the processes controlling, regional
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Sea level rise is partially due to
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Box # 1: The North Sea The North Se
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and organic material more rapidly t
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suggesting that climate rather than
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CO2 2- ). In turn, the alkalinity i
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looms are often associated with tox
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events of dense water through the D
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(1) Are we already observing a resp
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eastern and western side of the Nor
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system, their physiology and intern
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each coastal element be studied and
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IV.D.1. Introduction Coastal lagoon
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In the last decade, a general model
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topics in coastal lagoons (de Wit e
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Po River Delta lagoons, the long dr
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esilient to environmental changes a
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Chapter V.A. Climate Change and Ext
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It is realized that adaptation to c
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member states. Moreover some agenci
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Large, global scale climatic driver
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V.B.5. Climate change and droughts
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Evacuation from forest fires at Mas
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In European forest policy, water is
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Drought mitigation and the involvem
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DSS-DROUGHT A Decision Support Syst
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Chapter V .C. Climate Change, Ecolo
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The quality class boundaries within
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An example of this kind of relation
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Regions 1 to 5 represent mainly a m
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een observed in southwestern countr
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Table V.D.2: Percentage area affect
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Lake Surface Temperature [°C] Desc
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Case Study: Esthwaite Water, Cumbri
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Residence time (days) Chlorophyll (
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Case Study: Lake Erken, Sweden ►
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TP (µg l -1 ) Modelling To analyse
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Data availability and investigation
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smaller volume of water. The warmer
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Chapter VI.B. Climate Change and th
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Concerning the flora of the lagoon
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Figure VI.B.2: Frequency of “bora
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Figure VI.C.2. Daily flows in Ebro
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Figure VI.C.4. Mean temperature inc
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factors including an appropriate su
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with the lower limit range indicate
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Chapter VI.C. The Effects of Climat
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the main carrier of nutrients to gr
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system pathway shows an increase of
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Table-VI.C.7: Main factors and cons
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Chapter VI.D. Climate Change and th
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Atmospheric deposition to marine wa
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Many studies during the 90’s have
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severe flooding were investigated (
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Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens
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Chapter VI.F. Climate Change, Extre
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Areas behind the dikes broken in 20
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Second, the chemical is transported
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POPs exist in the atmosphere in the
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and ice have quite a low capacity t
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Table VI.F.1. Priority substances i
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22. Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporati
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31. Rodionov, S.N. 1994. Global and
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28. Dokulil, M.T., 2003. Algae as e
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63. Hejzlar, J., Dubrovský, M. Buc
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99. Melack, J.M., J. Dozier, C.R. G
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136. Straile, D. & Adrian, R. 2000.
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14. Blaas, M., Kerkhoven, D., and d
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60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
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105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
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ecosystems and the landscape and de
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2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
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European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
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4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
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variable trophic status: a paired l
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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