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Climate Change and the European Water Dimension Chapter VI.C. Climate Change and Nutrient Dynamics in the Po River Basin Key Points • Effects of nutrient reduction in the coastal sea are nonlinear and related to a dynamic interaction of chemical, physical and biological processes acting on different temporal and spatial scales in the atmospheric, water and soil ecosystems. • Changes in catchment level nutrient dynamics may impact water quality in the coastal zone. Warmer temperatures are expected to increase primary production, accelerate nutrient cycling and organic matter decomposition leading to an increase of marine vegetation growth. • The contribution of diffuse sources is higher (69%) than point sources (31%) for N, whereas point sources contribute with 62% of the total and diffuse sources with the remaining 38% for P. • Climate changes may lead to significant variations in natural conditions in the Po River watershed producing effects on major driving forces related to eutrophication in the coastal zone. 182
Chapter VI.C. The Effects of Climate Change on Nutrient Dynamics in the Po River Basin VI.C.1 Introduction Eutrophication in the Northern Adriatic is one of the major negative feedbacks originating from the rapid socio-economic development that has occurred in the Po region over the last decades. Nutrients released at river catchment level are carried to the Adriatic Sea by several important rivers and of these the Po makes the largest contribution. In order to mitigate eutrophication a reduction of the impact of anthropogenic sources in the catchment is needed, however, it is well known that the effects of nutrient reduction are non-linear and related to a dynamic interaction of chemical, physical and biological processes acting on different temporal and spatial scales in the atmospheric, water and soil ecosystems (Pirrone et al., 2005). Among the external forces that can affect the nutrient cycle, climate change may play an important role in the overall water cycle and affect pollutant transport pathways on a river catchment - coastal zone continuum scale. Changes in temperature and precipitation since the beginning of the 20 th century yield a global surface temperature change of +0.6 ±0.2°C, with the sea surface temperature rise about half that of the mean land-surface air temperature rise, a continued decrease in snow cover and the extent of land-ice all suggest that global warming is a major driving force that should be considered in long-term trend analyses of environmental pressures acting at local to global scales. Since the 1960s the extent of snow cover has decreased by about 10% and similarly the annual duration of lake and river ice has decreased by about two weeks at mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. The annual land precipitation has increased in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere whilst it has decreased over the sub-tropics, showing a strong relationship with annual stream flow. Recent studies suggest that significant differences between regional patterns are primarily related to various phases of atmospheric-oceanic oscillations such as the NOA and the ENSO (Avila et al., 1996; IPCC, 1996; IPCC, 2001a). Thus changes in catchment level nutrient dynamics may impact water quality in the coastal zone. Warmer temperatures are expected to increase primary production, accelerate nutrient cycling and organic matter decomposition leading to an increase of terrestrial and marine vegetation growth. The foreseen contrasting trends in precipitation due to changes in catchment hydrology will have a contrasting effect on terrestrial vegetation and a significant impact on nutrient cycling, leading to an increase in winter nutrient inputs and a summer decrease. Therefore in order to identify optimal management strategies aimed at the reduction of CZ eutrophication, there is a strong need to promote integrated catchment-coastal zone continuum research to evaluate the effects on the nutrients cycle of the major driving forces related to climate change. VI.C.2. The Nutrient Cycle and the Climate Change A preliminary assessment of the relative contributions of the major driving forces related to climate change on nutrient dynamics in the Po catchment-North Adriatic Sea continuum has been performed adopting the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact- Response (DPSIR) approach. In the DPSIR analysis, major driving forces included both human and pseudo-natural drivers (not properly natural because they are of anthropogenic origin) (see Table VI.C.1). The nutrient loads (i.e. environmental 183
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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European Commission- Joint Research
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At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
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Changes in the diurnal variation of
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Fugure I.2. (a) Maximum grid covera
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century. This corresponds to a sea
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Other causes Other causes of climat
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tropospheric ozone are photochemica
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Figure. I.4. Radiative forcings and
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There are two indirect effects of a
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The projected warming is not unifor
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water towards the west Pacific caus
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Aerosols and climate change in the
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precipitation intensities have been
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Chapter III. The Hydrologic Cycle I
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Figure III.2. Long-term average ann
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Figure III.4. Projected change in s
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eduction in the rate of evaporation
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characteristics may or may not be u
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temperatures potentially lead to hi
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Chapter IV.A. Proxy indicators of C
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Mean Air Temperature (Dec.-March) [
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correlation coefficient -0.4 -0.3 -
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Chapter IV. B. The Impact of Climat
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numbers refer to water bodies bigge
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Table IV.B.2. Number of large dams*
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quality degradation and meet the in
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sufficient resolution and accuracy
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Windermere in the English Lake Dist
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their vertical structure. In partic
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have recently described a method th
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The available evidence suggests tha
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1979). In contrast, heavy rain incr
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The projected increase in the atmos
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Aulacoseira spp. favour the changed
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vertical bars are a simple measure
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values, with an upper limit of 30°
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the processes controlling, regional
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Sea level rise is partially due to
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Box # 1: The North Sea The North Se
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and organic material more rapidly t
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suggesting that climate rather than
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CO2 2- ). In turn, the alkalinity i
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looms are often associated with tox
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events of dense water through the D
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(1) Are we already observing a resp
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eastern and western side of the Nor
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system, their physiology and intern
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each coastal element be studied and
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IV.D.1. Introduction Coastal lagoon
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In the last decade, a general model
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topics in coastal lagoons (de Wit e
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Po River Delta lagoons, the long dr
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esilient to environmental changes a
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Chapter V.A. Climate Change and Ext
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It is realized that adaptation to c
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member states. Moreover some agenci
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Large, global scale climatic driver
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V.B.5. Climate change and droughts
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Evacuation from forest fires at Mas
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60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
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105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
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ecosystems and the landscape and de
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2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
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European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
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4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
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variable trophic status: a paired l
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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