Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

European researchers are leading in the development of improved understanding of
the processes that drive such large-scale climate systems. This improved
understanding will underpin a more reliable forecasting of the frequency and
persistence of future European droughts ((Wilby et al., 2005). However, considerable
challenges remain if policy makers and water managers are to be furnished with
effective tools to counteract the threat of drought. Greater reconciliation is required
between existing scenario outputs and directly monitored hydrological behaviour at
the basin and catchment scale. As yet there is little compelling evidence of changes
in the frequency and magnitude of low flow episodes in those areas of Europe where
flow patterns a little affected by man’s activities (Hisdal et al., 2001). It is important
therefore that monitoring programmes are maintained to provide the ground-truth and
process understanding that will help inform the development of future generations of
sub-regional climate models.
V.B.6. Impacts of drought – Lessons from 2003
The 2003 drought was a stark reminder of Europe’s vulnerability to drought,
demonstrating clearly what can happen when an exceptional rainfall deficiency is
combined with extended heat-wave conditions. In parts of Europe summer
temperatures were 4-7 °C higher than the seasonal average.
The diversity and far reaching effects of the 2003 drought are illustrated in the
following selected examples. The impacts in Italy were particularly severe, with the
country on the brink of a national emergency. The tragic effects of “la canicule”
(extreme heat wave) of 2003 have left a profound social and political impression
upon the people of France.
European Agriculture was particularly badly affected, with farm lobby groups in the
EU estimating losses of €11 billion. Typical agricultural production losses are shown
in Table V.B.2 (COPA COGECA 2003).
Table V.B.2. Impact of the summer 2003 heat
wave and droungt on Agriculture and forestry in 5
countries.
Poultry
Potatoes
Maize
Wheat
Fodder
Table 2 : Impact of the summer 2003 heat wave and drought
on agricultural and forestry in 5 selected countries
Impact upon production 2003/2002
-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
Financial Impact
Austria 197 Mio
Spain 810 Mio
Italy 4-5 000 Mio
Germany 1 500 Mio
France 4 000 Mio
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For example, the reduced production
of green fodder required :
• importing this bulky commodity
from as far away as the
Ukraine,
• the early slaughtering of cattle,
• reduced carry over of feed for
livestock for 2004
EU cereal production was 23 mio
tonnes below that of 2002, requiring
imports and depletion of carry over
stocks.
In addition to the direct economic costs, the increased water demands of agriculture
(and particularly irrigated agriculture) played a very significant role in making drought
conditions worse.