Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

Table V.D.2: Percentage area affected by different environmental constraints for
rain-fed crop production for the baseline scenario (BL) and for the
climate change scenario HaDCM3-A1FI (CC).
Region
Total
Area
10 6
ha
Area with
constraints
(%)
BL CC
Too cold
(%)
BL CC
149
Too dry
(%)
BL CC
Too wet
(%)
BL CC
Poor soils
(%)
BL CC
Northern Europe 173 45.2 38.3 18.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 24.6 32.9
Southern Europe 132 44.1 45.5 0.7 0.0 0.2 2.4 0.0 0.0 23.1 22.6
Eastern Europe 171 18.0 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 15.0
Western Europe 110 28.9 28.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.1 18.1
Table adapted from Fisher et al. (2002). Note: “Columns are mutually exclusive and the order
in which constraints are listed defines a priority ranking for areas where multiple severe
constraints apply. For instance land with very poor soil conditions in the artic region is shown
as “too cold” and is not listed as having severe soil constraints.”
Agricultural production is radiation dependent and is strongly affected by changes in
the temperature and precipitation regimes. Agriculture, therefore, is the most
vulnerable human activity under unfavourable climatic conditions. In Europe, this is
particularly true for the northern (temperature-limited) and southern (moisture-limited)
regions. It is expected that in middle and higher latitudes higher temperatures will
lead to an increase of the length of the growing season, earlier spring planting, faster
maturation and earlier harvesting. In addition, milder winters will allow for the
cultivation of more productive cultivars of winter and annual crops, and the cultivation
of perennial crops will increase. In southern latitudes, however, the actual cultivars
might not be adapted to the predicted higher temperatures. With temperatures
exceeding the temperature range for optimum growth, a reduction in net growth and
yield is expected in this region.
Climate warming will cause a general northward expansion of crop species, cultivars
and management practices. For Finland, for example, Carter et al. (1996) predicted a
northern shift of 120 to 150 km of the area suitable for the cultivation of spring
cereals for each degree of increase in mean annual temperature. In the
Mediterranean region, however, a general reduction in cereal yields is expected due
to drier conditions. At the same time, the area of seed crop cultivation (e.g., oil seed
rape, sunflower) is expected to expand northward with an increased productivity.
Similar northward shifts are expected for vegetables and permanent crops (Perry,
2000).
V.D.5. Adaptation Strategies
Strategies to adapt to climate change should not be seen as individual remedies
since agriculture is competing for water allocation with other sectors affected by
climate change. Parry (2000) distinguishes between short adjustments that aim at
optimising production without introducing major system changes, and long-term
adaptations where heavier structural changes will take place to alleviate the adverse
effects of climate change. Suggested adjustments include changes in planting
strategies and the use of more appropriate cultivars: long season cultivars might
increase yield potential, while late cultivars might be used to prevent destruction due
to heat waves and drought during the summer. However, the use of more extended