Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

een observed in southwestern countries. This trend can be explained by the use of
more efficient irrigation methods and the influence of the 1992 CAP reform on crop
production. In the southern countries as a whole, however, there was an increase in
water allocation to irrigation in the 1990s, mostly due to activities in Cyprus, Spain
and Turkey. Southern countries use ca. three times more water per unit of irrigated
land than other parts of Europe. Over the same period, the amount of water used for
irrigation has largely decreased in the central Accession Countries, mainly due to the
deterioration and non-use of irrigation systems (in total a decrease of more than 70%
of the water abstracted for agricultural and industrial uses has been observed). This
trend could, however, be reversed with the progressive integration of their economies
into the EU and the resulting development of more intensive agricultural practices.
(EEA, 2003; EEA WQ2; EEA WQ02a).
In 1999, the average allocation of water for irrigation was around 5600 m 3 /ha/year for
Europe and around 7200 m 3 /ha/year for Southern countries (EEA WQ02a). For EU
15, between 1990 and 2000, the irrigated area increased by about 14.5%, with large
regional differences (e.g., 28.8% for France, Greece and Spain) (EEA, IRENA
Indicator Fact Sheet on Water Use Intensity). The large amount of water dedicated to
irrigation in the southern countries is problematic since most of these countries have
been classified as water stressed, and face problems associated with groundwater
over-abstraction such as aquifer depletion and salt-water intrusion (EEA, 2003; EEA
WQ03b).
V.D.4. Potential Climate Change Impacts on European Agriculture
Climate change will impact directly on agriculture by the alteration of meteorological
conditions, which is the major driving force of crop production, and indirectly since
agriculture is competing with other sectors for water allocation. The involved
processes are manifold and it is difficult to make generalised conclusions on the
combined effects of the increases in CO2 and temperature and the changing
precipitation patterns (Fuhrer, 2003). In addition, climate change is expected to have
impacts on agriculture by affecting soil processes (e.g., oxidation of soil OM), which
in turn might affect negatively or positively agricultural production. While, for
example, an increase in CO2 will have positive effects on the water use efficiency
and productivity of many crops, accelerated plant development will increase total
crop water consumption. Increasing temperature will have negative effects due to a
generally higher evaporative demand, the higher frequency of heat waves, and
possible increases in competition with weeds. At the same time pest and diseases
may spread more widely (Fuhrer, 2003; Olesen and Bindi, 2002; Iglesias et al.,
2000).
The projected climate change based on GCM calculations can be summarised as
follows. It is expected that annual average temperatures will increase between 0.1
and 0.4°C per decade, with the largest increase in southern Europe (Spain, Italy and
Greece) and in northeastern Europe (Finland), while the lowest increases are
expected along the Atlantic coast (Kundzewicz et al., 2001). It is further expected that
summer warm-up will be twice as fast in southern Europe than in northern Europe
and that precipitation will increase between 1 and 2 percent per decade in northern
Europe while it will decrease by less than one percent per decade in southern
Europe. At the same time seasonal differences will increase throughout Europe. Most
of the continent will get wetter in winter, while during summer wetting is expected in
northern Europe (+2% per decade) and drying is expected in the South (-5% per
decade). The reduction of precipitation in southern Europe is expected to have
severe effects, e.g. more frequent droughts, with considerable impacts on agriculture
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