Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

Chapter V.B. Climate Change and European Droughts
This chapter originated as a Discussion Document sponsored by the EurAqua
Network of European Freshwater Research Organizations. A large number of
individuals from across Europe have contributed text, data, and photographs and
then commented upon the original document.
V.B.1. Introduction
This chapter considers Europe’s susceptibility to drought, how the range of problems
experienced during 2003 may be exacerbated as a consequence of climate change,
and how resilience to future drought stress can be strengthened. In particular,
consideration of drought severity under future climate change scenarios is warranted
in view of:
• The possible future increases in drought frequency and severity across Europe
• The severity of the drought which affected much of Europe during 2003,
• The low priority given to droughts in many European policies.
• The increased potential for collaboration on water issues at European level,
• Recent advances in the scientific understanding of droughts,
• The better preparedness and mitigation approaches now being used in other
advanced countries
The purpose of this chapter is to highlight the threat of droughts and emphasize the
need to improve drought mitigation measures at all levels if future impacts of climate
change are to be managed.
V.B.2. Europe’s Vulnerability to Drought
Droughts are a natural and recurrent feature of the European climate (EEA, 2001)
occurring in both high and low rainfall areas, and in any season. They develop
slowly, can persist for years over very wide areas, and have major economic, social
and environmental consequences. Drought is one of the major weather related
disasters and recent events have demonstrated Europe’s continuing vulnerability to
this natural hazard. The impacts depend on the severity, duration and spatial extent
of the rainfall deficit but also, and to a large extent, on the environmental and socioeconomic
vulnerability of the affected region. Many parts of Europe suffer water
stress, and, as was seen in 2003, it is these areas that are most vulnerable to
drought. Climate change modeling (Arnell, 1999) using a range of climate scenarios,
has predicted that droughts are likely to increase in frequency and intensity across
most of Western Europe.
Notwithstanding the severe impact of major droughts on the fabric of society, the
institutional frameworks to cope with droughts at European level are poorly
developed (Vogt and Somma, 2000). There is a growing need for drought to feature
more strongly on the political agenda since:
• Droughts are a major threat to the economic and social well being of European
citizens.
• Europe’s vulnerability to drought is increasing due to increased demand for water
in some sectors and regions, and the impact of climate change
• While drought planning in some member states is at an advanced level, and
compares favorably with practices elsewhere in the world, the extent and
effectiveness of drought management procedures is highly variable between
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