Hazard anticipation of young novice drivers - SWOV

This is to say that they anticipate a possible hazard. All this most of the time
is done effortlessly.
The above description is neither a complete description of the driving
task nor a model of this task. The intention here is to indicate that, although
experienced drivers seem to execute the driving task effortlessly, the driving
task is in fact very complex as often subtle judgements and predictions are
made about the intentions and actions of other road users in relation to one's
own. In the studies that are presented in this thesis, not all the mentioned
aspects are investigated, but only those that are related to the detection of
hazards and the reactions on hazards. For better understanding of this
general introduction, hazard anticipation can preliminary be described as
encompassing the following aspects:
• Detection and recognition of potential dangerous road and traffic
situations;
• Prediction of how these latent hazards can develop into acute threats;
• Feelings of risk that accompany these predictions of acute threats;
• Selection and execution of actions that enlarge one's safety margin and
reduce one's feelings of risk.
A theoretical framework of hazard anticipation is presented in Chapter 3.
1.2. The crash rate of young novice drivers
This thesis is not about hazard anticipation in general, but about the hazard
anticipation of young novice drivers. In this thesis, young novice drivers are
car drivers under the age of twenty-five. In developed countries, traffic is the
primary cause of death of persons between 15 and 24 years of age. 35% of all
fatalities in this age group are caused by traffic crashes (OECD, 2006). In the
Netherlands in 2008, 23.4% of all car drivers involved in severe crashes 1 were
drivers between 18 and 24 years of age. Of all licence holders, only 7.8% was
in this age range. This over-representation of young novice drivers in severe
car crashes is not unique for the Netherlands. In OECD countries 2 in 2004,
1
In this thesis, severe crashes are crashes that resulted in at least one fatality or at least one
person injured with an injury rated as two or more at the Abbreviated Injury Scale
(MAIS2+). Victims can be the driver her- or himself or her or his passenger(s). Victims can
also be the driver/rider or passenger(s) of the other vehicle involved in a crash or a
pedestrian involved in the crash.
2
Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany,
Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands,
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