Hazard anticipation of young novice drivers - SWOV

overestimate her or his own capabilities and does not underestimate or
overestimate the risk in the traffic situation.
The task-difficulty homeostasis model can be seen as possible
functional architecture behind the second part of the proposed definition of
hazard anticipation (the ability to realize/feel the risk involved in a latent
hazardous and the motivation to take anticipatory actions). However, no
distinction is made between an automatic mode and a controlled mode of
hazard anticipation. The task-difficulty homeostasis model also does not
offer a possible explanation for the first part of the presented definition of
hazard anticipation (the skill to detect and recognize latent hazards and to
predict how the situation can develop) as the information processing models
do. Another limitation of motivational models in general is that no tests can
be executed to falsify the theory (Popper, 1959). Supposed internal
mechanisms regulate the behaviour of which the effects cannot be measured
separately. A motivational model can explain why a certain driver starts to
drive faster in a particular situation and the same model also can explain
why the same driver slows down in that particular situation, if this would be
the case (Michon, 1985; Ranney, 1994). This is to say every type of behaviour
fits the theory and because of this, no accurate predictions can be made about
how a driver will be have in certain circumstances.
3.3.3. The zero-risk model
Näätänen & Summala (1974) have developed a model on driver behaviour
they themselves call a motivational model, but can be conceived as a hybrid
model that has information processing elements and motivational elements.
The authors assume that driving most of the times is a self-paced task where
drivers proactively control the driving situation, based on their expectations
of how things will develop in the near future. As long as the expectancy of
risk in the near future is below a certain threshold, drivers will not
experience risk. In fact, drivers normally tend to avoid any risk experiences
(Näätänen & Summala, 1976). In a recent version of this model, the concept
of risk is substituted for discomfort as in Fuller's task-difficulty homeostasis
model (see Section 3.3.2) (Summala, 2007). Figure 3.4 shows the zero-risk
model.
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