Hazard anticipation of young novice drivers - SWOV

available, the crash rate of drivers by age cannot be determined. Elvik et al.
(2009) were able to compare crash rate by gender and age for the state
Victoria in Australia, the United States, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and the
Netherlands. The authors conclude that the function of crash rate by gender
and age were remarkably similar in all the mentioned countries. All had an
U-shape. Young male drivers had a higher crash rate than young female
drivers and after the age of about 30 women had a slightly higher crash rate
than men.
When novice drivers grow older and when they gain experience the
crash rate declines. Do we have an indication which part of this decline can
be attributed to age (e.g. maturation of the brain) and which part can be
attributed to experience? From 1990 to 2009 a periodical survey was
conducted on behalf of the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and
Environment. The survey was called the 'Periodiek Regionaal Onderzoek
Verkeersveiligheid' (PROV) (Periodical Regional Traffic Safety Survey). Each
time approximately 8000 respondents completed the questionnaires, of
which about 6000 were car drivers. Data obtained from the surveys of 1990,
1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1999 and 2001 were combined (Vlakveld,
2005). Although a part of the questions was different each time the survey
was conducted, most of questions remained the same over the years. Among
the questions that remained the same, were the questions:
• What is your age?
• Do you have a driving licence and if yes, how long are you in the
possession of your licence?
• Did you drive a car in the past 12 months?
• What was your annual mileage in the past 12 months?
• In how many crashes 3 were you involved as a car driver during the past
12 months?
In the combined database, 316 car drivers were 19 years of age and held their
licence for 12 months. Of these 316 novice drivers, 53 had reported crash
involvement as a car driver in the past 12 months. The mean reported annual
mileage of the 316 drivers was 6,253 km. Therefore, the crash rate of this
group of young novice drivers was 26.8 (self-reported) crashes per (selfreported)
million driver kilometres. In the database, 359 drivers were 2 year
in the possession of their licence and were 20 years of age. These respondents
3
In this survey a crash was defined as a crash in traffic that has resulted in material damage,
at least one injured person or a least one fatality.
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