Hazard anticipation of young novice drivers - SWOV

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Summary Driving most of the times, is a self-paced task. Based on their expectations of how things will develop in the near future, drivers proactively influence the road and traffic situation. They do this by looking in particular directions from where possible hazards may materialize (the areas that contain latent hazards) and by adjusting their speed and if possible their lateral position. Young novice drivers are not very good in proactively controlling the road and traffic situation. This is one of the causes they are overrepresented in crashes. Firstly, this thesis aims to clarify why young novice drivers are not very good in hazard anticipation. Is this mainly because their predictions about how things will develop in the near future are not so good or mainly because they accept more risks than older drivers do, as they do not 'feel' the risks so easily and/or are not motivated to accept only low levels of risk? Secondly, this thesis aims to find a practical method to test the skill to detect and recognize latent hazards, and a separate method to test the element of risk acceptance in hazard anticipation. Thirdly, this thesis aims to find an effective method to train hazard anticipation. Chapter 2 is a literature review of studies about the causes of the high crash rate of young novice drivers. The emphasis in this review is on studies concerning determinants that indirectly influence hazard anticipation. The young novice driver problem is not a new problem and in the past decades, hundreds of studies have been conducted to find out what the underlying causes for the overrepresentation of young novice drivers in car crashes are. In the literature, two main components are distinguished that are strongly interrelated. These two components are lack of experience and immaturity. Each component in itself consists of many different determinants. For a coherent presentation of the findings, a taxonomy of determinants was 261
developed. In this taxonomy four categories are distinguished that indirectly influence hazard anticipation at mainly the tactical control level of the driving task (Michon, 1979). These categories are: (1) biological aspects, (2) social and cultural aspects, (3) transient factors that reduce the driving capabilities, and (4) exposure to risks. The biological aspects are age (immaturity of the brain), gender, personality and physical and mental constitution. Because of new brain imaging techniques we now know that maturation of especially some areas of the prefrontal cortex is late in life and full maturation is not reached before the age of 25, especially for males. It is not so much the late maturation of these areas in itself, but rather the late maturation of these areas in combination with the earlier maturation of other brain areas, including the sub-cortical areas related to motivation and emotion such as the amygdala and the nucleus accumbens. The slowly maturing prefrontal systems are supposed to have an inhibitory function on emotional and motivational systems. It is thought that because of this imbalance young people are relatively speaking: impulsive, have an inclination towards sensation seeking, prefer immediate rewards, are sensitive about what their peers think of them and find it difficult to plan ahead. Adolescents however, do not seem to be less rational than adults are when reflecting on their own capabilities. This is to say, both young drivers and middle-aged drivers tend to overestimate their own driving capabilities. Young drivers also do not underestimate known risks when they have the time to reflect on these risks. When asked for, they will tell that drinking and driving is dangerous. The problem is that although they know the risks (when asked for), at least some of them still will take the risks. In the Netherlands, the crash rate of young female drivers is much lower than the crash rate of young male drivers. There are some structural differences between the male and female brain, but these differences are rather small. Brain development is somewhat faster in female adolescents than in male adolescents, especially during the first years of adolescence (before the age they are allowed to drive). The fact that girls are more risk averse than boys as a driver, probably is mainly due to differences in secretion of hormones and neurotransmitters in response to stressors. This is regulated by the HPA axis and the function of this axis depends largely on sex hormones (testosterone and oestrogen). The crash rate of all young novice drivers is not equally high. Especially young novice drivers that score high on sensation seeking have a high crash rate. Sensation seeking probably is influenced by the rate of dopamine to serotonin that increases throughout adolescence. Two mental disorders with a rather high prevalence during adolescence are different types of autism and Attention 262
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Hazard anticipation of young novice
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SWOV-Dissertatiereeks, Leidschendam
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Promotores: Prof. dr. W.H. Brouwer
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development of hazard perception te
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Table of contents 1. General introd
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1. General introduction 1.1. Hazard
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27% of all driver fatalities were d
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eported 73 car crashes during the p
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with respondents that started their
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2. Determinants that influence haza
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planning of a trip, choice of the m
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that encompasses the entire second
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peaks at 16.7 years of age in girls
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Figure 2.2. Model of the different
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Keating (2007) mentioned the matura
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Table 2.1. Relative fatality ratios
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When do these sex differences emerg
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Functional brain differences in boy
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oth groups had in common was their
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3. Extroversion: Extrovert persons
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is less in these brain areas, but a
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2.4.2. Peer group influences In ado
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deduced that car drivers younger th
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or little interference with the dri
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2.4.4. Socioeconomic and cultural b
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Preusser, 2002). The crash rate of
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impact on road safety. Despite the
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condition for the older, more exper
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person (e.g. a passenger or a pedes
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tasks was 3.10, 95% CI [1.73, 5.47]
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traffic situation is safe enough to
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2.6.1. Exposure In Section 1.2, the
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58 56 Male Drivers Female Drivers S
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100 Killed car occupants aged 18-24
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less well equipped to detect and re
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3.2. Hazard anticipation A hazard i
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Drivers are aware of hazards when t
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1. Possible other road users on col
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oriented and the vertical axis is t
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away from me, given the particular
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the task demands. The range of acce
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Figure 3.4. Zero-risk model (Näät
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with FTD, poor monitoring of the ri
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elatively high speed in the same di
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only associated with top-down activ
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information transformation processe
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(consciously) controlled action reg
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on the left lane of a motorway (in
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3.7.1, 3.7.2 and 3.7.3. This is don
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driver does not think that she or h
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for experienced drivers even in cir
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sound was heard) and some participa
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stage. In this stage, learners comm
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A theory that explains how we may l
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were about to turn left while their
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4. Hazard anticipation, age and exp
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hazards, drivers have to imagine a
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overview of their studies: McKenna
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with regard to the risk felt in the
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Participants were requested to pres
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of the visual acuity in the fovea.
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working memory. Both bottom-up proc
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without gaze control (the gray arro
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urban areas than on rural roads, no
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the right between the parked cars i
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that in the video clips no visible
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• Young learner drivers (age rang
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• Did you have moments that you t
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difference between overt latent haz
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4.2.3. Procedure On arrival, the ex
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ecognition task, risk assessment an
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Table 4.1. Percentage of the partic
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that cognitive aspects of hazard an
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80 70 Mean percentage mentioned cov
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Table 4.3. Percentages of latent ha
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latent hazards was higher than the
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Discussion about fixated latent haz
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mentioned latent hazards, young lea
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Gaze directions and fixation durati
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4.3.3. Relationship between the two
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selection task cannot be used to te
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Underwood, Chapman et al. (2002) an
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more difficulties to detect and rec
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5. Testing hazard anticipation, an
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• The video task and the photo ta
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animation clips were made, each las
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The photo task Three experts on the
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5.2.3. Procedure Participants were
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5.2.6. Overt and covert latent haza
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The effect size was small, η 2 P =
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action selection task of Chapter 4,
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3. Effect of interruptions The inte
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5.3.3. Procedure Participants were
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The mean click score was M = 7.7 (S
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ottom-up gaze control (the tractor
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6. Simulator-based hazard anticipat
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al., 2002; Regan, Triggs, & Godley,
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esources to vehicle control (steeri
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of the University of Massachusetts
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In contrast, Ivancic & Hesketh (200
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students, whereas participants that
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for the training were based on thos
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6.2.3. Training intervention SimRAP
Page 212 and 213: A screen capture of the centre scre
Page 214 and 215: Table 6.2. (continued) critical sit
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Page 220 and 221: For the control group the opposite
Page 222 and 223: The combined three near transfer si
Page 224 and 225: training program was mostly on over
Page 226 and 227: 7. Discussion and conclusions 7.1.
Page 228 and 229: ehaviour could be the cause of unsa
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Page 236 and 237: than both other groups. It is likel
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Page 242 and 243: order to avoid attribution of an ex
Page 244 and 245: References Abelson, R.P. (1981). Ps
Page 246 and 247: underlying reaction time to visual
Page 248 and 249: Darby, P., Murray, W. & Raeside, R.
Page 250 and 251: Fuller, R. (2007b). Motivational de
Page 252 and 253: Irwin, D.E. (2004). Fixation locati
Page 254 and 255: Louwerens, J.W., Gloerich, A.B.M.,
Page 256 and 257: Murray, Å. (1998). The home and sc
Page 258 and 259: Roth, M. (2009). Social support as
Page 260 and 261: Ulleberg, P. (2001). Personality su
Page 264 and 265: Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADH
Page 266 and 267: framework of Brouwer & Schmidt (200
Page 268 and 269: and older learner drivers. From the
Page 270 and 271: prepare participants for the tasks.
Page 272: group than before the training and
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Page 277 and 278: status en een auto betekent ook vri
Page 279 and 280: Belangrijk is dat zowel bij zichtba
Page 281 and 282: en ervaren bestuurders (Huestegge e
Page 283 and 284: afgerond, hadden ook een significan
Page 285 and 286: om hun veiligheidsmarge te vergrote
Page 288: About the author Willem Vlakveld wa
Page 291 and 292: 4. On a rural road when driving str
Page 293 and 294: they keep on walking in the same di
Page 295 and 296: 5. The driver drivers straight on a
Page 298 and 299: Appendix 3 Additional latent hazard
Page 300 and 301: Appendix 4 Glossary of abbreviation
Page 302 and 303: economic progress and world trade.
Page 304 and 305: Appendix 5 Glossary on brain issues
Page 306 and 307: Gonadotropin releasing hormone Gray
Page 308 and 309: MEG Motor cortex MRI Myelination Ne
Page 310 and 311: PFC Serotonin Striatum Synaptic pru
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