The Future of Smallholder Farming in Eastern Africa - Uganda ...

Table 5.7: Seasonality index of wholesale price of maize
White maize
Mixed maize
Month 6:00 7:30 8:30 6:00 7:30 8:30
March 72.8 72.2 72.8 72.5 71.5 71.7
April 77.7 77.8 77.3 76.3 76.6 75.7
May 86.7 86.7 86.8 86.6 86.3 86.4
June 129.3 129.3 129.7 129.3 129.8 129.5
July 133.5 134.0 133.4 135.3 135.8 136.8
Minimum 72.8 72.2 72.8 72.5 71.5 71.7
Maximum 133.5 134.0 133.4 135.3 135.8 136.8
Seasonality gap 60.8 61.7 60.7 62.8 64.3 65.1
Mean 69.8 69.9 69.3 65.9 65.9 65.2
SD 19.2 19.3 19.1 18.7 19.0 18.9
Source: Own computation.
Table 5.5 shows that seasonality indexes of all types of teff showed an increasing trend over
time. As expected, the seasonality indexes of all teff types were lowest during the month of
March and highest during June and July. However, unlike Adda teff, the seasonality indexes
of Wollenkomi and Gojjam/Bechena teff declined during the month of July. It should be noted
that the seasonality gap of Adda teff (highest quality) appeared lowest and did not show
significant variation during the opening and the closing period of the market.
While price indexes of wheat and maize showed an increasing trend over the period under
review, maize price indexes were erratic—that is, the indexes fluctuated substantially
compared with those for wheat. The seasonal effect is higher for wheat and maize than for
teff. The relative stability of the seasonal indexes of teff might be due to the stronger demand
in urban areas (less substitution in making enjera). Teff can also be stored without fumigation
for a longer period of time than can the other crops. Of the three crops, the seasonality effect
of maize seems to be highest.
5.1.2. Trends of retail prices
The average retail price of teff was consistently above the average retail prices of wheat and
maize. Within teff types, the average daily retail price of Adda teff (Prat) is the highest
(Figure 5.1). On the other hand, average daily retail price of Bechena teff (Prbt) is the lowest
of all, while average daily retail price of Wollenkomi teff (Prwt) lies between the two types.