The Future of Smallholder Farming in Eastern Africa - Uganda ...

was used to estimate the proportion of land occupied by various resources. This allocation was
then compared to the resource allocation in1981. The data was then subjected to the Wilcox
Sign-Rank test to determine whether there were significant trends across all 22 communities.
The results are shown in the table below.
Table 2. Test of Significance for Trends in Natural Resource Area
Area Now Past Sign Rank Test Significance
Lake 19% 15% z = 1.481 Prob > |z| = 0.1386
Swamp 10% 12% z = -1.287 Prob > |z| = 0.1980
Trees 14% 19% z = -2.879 Prob > |z| = 0.0040
Farm Land 32% 29% z = 0.915 Prob > |z| = 0.3600
Graze Land 13% 11% z = 1.363 Prob > |z| = 0.1730
Rocks 5% 5%
Other 8% 9%
Not tested – too few observations
100% 100%
The only significant trend that was observed across the entire sample is the decline in forested
area due to over utilization. Clearly this trend is resulting in reduced habitat for wildlife and a
resulting loss in bio-diversity as seen later in the decline in hunting in all communities. The
community members were then asked to define what they thought were the important elements of
“QUALITY” for each of the natural resources and then to rank them against this definition of
quality on a scale of 0 to 5, with zero being the worst, and 5 being the best.
Quality Now Past Sign Rank Test Significance
Lake 2.56 4.44 z = -3.292 Prob > |z| = 0.0010
Swamp 2.65 3.76 z = -1.964 Prob > |z| = 0.0496
Trees/Forests 1.94 4.29 Z = -3.041 Prob > |z| = 0.0024
Farm Land 2.41 4.24 z = -2.995 Prob > |z| = 0.0027
Graze Land 2.86 4.14 z = -2.256 Prob > |z| = 0.0241
Rocks 3.00 2.50 Not tested – too few observations
The perception of reduction in quality of the natural resources is significant at the 5% level for
swamp and grazing resources and at the 1% level for lake, forests, and farming land. Clearly
there is a common perception that natural resource quality has deteriorated significantly in the
entire study area over the last 20 years.
5.2.2 Trends in Income Sources
To capture the trends in sources of income, communities were asked to identify the proportion of
the households involved in various types of income generation, now and in the past. The results
across all communities are presented in the following figure.