trends and future of sustainable development - TransEco

fiscal, budgetary and monetary policies under implementation. Thus, the simulations thatbecome possible can significantly increase the efficiency of the macroeconomic policies mix inorder to avoid structural unbalances and social tensions and to ensure the sustainabledevelopment of our society.One of the main purposes of the model is represented by the forecasting of the budgetary revenuesand expenditures, and, resulting thereof, the analysis and assessment of the financial policy measures’impact. The revenues depend on the level of the taxation bases. The most important of them are officialgross wages in economy, official gross profit, market private consumption and imports. The taxationbases are forecasted according with GDP and aggregated demand forecasts.The mechanism based on which the change in fiscal policy entails GDP change is the following one:any shock in the fiscal policy, particularly related to a fiscal relaxation, would entail a surplus of factors’incomes which, at their turn, would generate a surplus of aggregated demand (consumption andinvestments). This surplus would be carried out forward to GDP and imports, so that, in the end, grossvalue added would be adjusted, thus determining the increase of gross salary earnings and new jobs onlabor market.3. Results: Fiscal policies changes and the budget scenariosIn this section two practical applications of the model are presented to evaluate the impact of the fiscalpolicies on the evolution of the budgetary revenues and on the economic growth. For every alternativescenario variants both the direct (budgetary) effects of the fiscal policy and the indirect effects werequantified. If the direct effects are accounting results of the new tax rates, the indirect effects consist inthe influences of the new fiscal policy on the macroeconomic indicators and the impact of their changesupon the budgetary revenues.In order to forecast the budgetary revenue it is imperative to define a baseline scenario, whichshould meet the following requirements: updating of the macroeconomic indicator forecast in relationwith the first part of 2011 and the maintenance of the same fiscal policy in 2011-2012 as the one from2010. The next stage after developing the baseline scenario is to build alternative scenarios, containingthe suggested fiscal changes. The alternative scenarios are the following: Variant 1: flat tax relaxation by 4%; Variant 2: security contribution decrease by 3 percentage points and minimum wage increasefrom 165 euro to 200 euro.The baseline scenarioStarting from 2010, Romanian economy evolved towards gradual improvement of the downward trendof certain indicators, as well as towards the consolidation of the upward trend of the main indicatorsrelated to supply, which have pointed out the end of the crisis. The improved evolution of economicsectors beginning with 2011 led to GDP growth by 1.6% in QI 2011 compared with QI 2010 and to theexit from recession, since growths were recorded for two consecutive quarters against previous period.289