trends and future of sustainable development - TransEco

Scenario based strategic work is built on the scenario process which aims at creating a joint view offuture trends and uncertainties of the operational environment. Further, the task is to develop the futurescenarios and estimate their effect in the field. Next, a strategic analysis is carried out in which theeffectiveness of the present strategy and the critical success factors of the organisation in the perspectiveof the results of the scenario work are estimated. On the basis of the analysis are alternative strategiccourses of action defined. Correspondently, their effect is estimated in various future scenarios and also,for example, the strategic state of determination is expressed as a vision and as an organisationalstrategy. The planning phase is followed by the implementation of the strategy and the follow-up of theresults which helps to update the results of the scenario work. The strategic work is carried out yearly. Atthe same time the scenarios and their effects are estimated but the whole process of scenario work withthe purpose to improve the scenarios is not necessarily carried out. A strategic process is connected to ascenario project only every three years unless the changes in the operational environment give reason toa shorter period of re-estimation.ReferencesAguillar-Millan, S., Feeney, A., Oberg, A. and Rudd, E. (2010) The post scarscity world of 2050-2075. InThe Futurist January–February 2010, 34–40EVA (2009). EVA global scenarios. Playing fields of the future. http://www.eva.fi/wpcontent/uploads/files/2443_EVA_SCENARIOS_playing_fields_of_the_future.pdfFink, A, Siebe, A. and Kuhle, J.-P. (2010). How scenarios interconnect strategy, innovation, and earlywarning processes. In World Future Review. A Journal of Strategic Foresight, 5–30Howard, R. (2009) The politics of climate change. The Futurist November–December 2009, 24–27Pelastustoimen trendi- ja skenaarioanalyysi (2010). Capful Oy:n konsultoiman projektin tuotoksenavalmistunut Power Point -diasarja. Kuopio: PelastusopistoPetersen, J. L. (2009). A new end, a new beginning. Prepare for life as we don’t know it. In The FuturistSeptember–October 2009, 25–28Kaukonen, E. (toim.) (2011). Tulevaisuusluotauksen tarve ja hyödynnettävyys – Pelastustoimentrendianalyysi ja päivitetyt skenaariot 20125+. Pelastustoimen Tulevaisuusraadin osaraportti 5.Pelastusopisto: Tutkimusraportit 1/2011Sisäasiainministeriö (2010). Sisäisen turvallisuuden toimintaympäristö murroksessa – Kehityksensuuntalinjat ja strategiset haasteet. Sisäasiainministeriön julkaisu 27/2010409