trends and future of sustainable development - TransEco

3002502001501005001945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Domestic DMI Domestic TMRFigure 2.Direct and hidden domestic material flows in Finland from 1945 to 2007 (Milliontonnes)As can be seen from figure 2 the Finnish domestic DMI increased from 29.4 million tonnes in 1945to 204.4 million tonnes in 2007. At the same period the Finnish domestic TMR increased from 47.5million tonnes to 179 million tonnes. Most increases in materials consumption have occurred during1960’s, 1980’s and 2000’s. The trends of both indicators have been constantly growing with notablereductions in 1970’s (due to first oil crisis) and 1990’s (last economic recession). In general trends thereis no evidence nor indication of dematerialization or immaterialisation processes.Total domestic hidden flows in the year 2007 amounted up to 83.6 million tonnes i.e. 40.9 per centof the amount of direct flows. The magnitude of hidden flows in earth materials, agriculture and forestsectors are directly related to magnitude of direct flows as in these sectors as hidden flow multipliershave been used to calculate them. Thus the improvements in technology efficiency or in the quality ofdirect flows have no effects on the quantities of hidden flows. The mining sector is the only sector whereactual hidden flow statistics are compiled and thus this is the only sector where the hidden flows are notbound to direct flows. In the forest and agriculture sectors the approximations and use of multipliers arethe only possible methods to assess the magnitude of relevant hidden flows.The biggest domestic flows are wood material (43.4 per cent), earth materials (24.3 per cent), mining(15.8 per cent) and agriculture (13 per cent) and. The hidden flows of peat are quite modest share of thetotal (3.4 per cent). It seems likely that the hidden flow trends are set to continue in the 21st century. Theincrease in the material flows depends on the economical situation and the magnitude of the depressionwe are facing in the beginning of the year 2008. The previous depression in Finland can be detectedfrom the MFA accounts as well. In the beginning of 1990 Finland was in economic regression due tofinancial crisis in the late 1980s. Economical situation begun to improve approximately by the mid 90´s.The first oil crisis in the mid 70´s and subsequent economic regression can also be seen in the use ofmaterials. Thus as in near future the economical regression can have an effect on the material flows bydegreasing it approximately somewhat 10 million tonnes. The influences of two economic regressionscan be best detected from the use of earth materials which implicates that construction sector havesuffered most severely or at least for longest compared to other sectors.81