trends and future of sustainable development - TransEco

120100806040200Passenger transport volume 2020900080007000600050004000 soft modes3000 airplane2000railway1000bus0pass.carPassenger transport CO 2 2020soft modesairplanerailwaybuspass.carPassenger transport volume 2030Passenger transport CO 2 2030120100806040200900080007000600050004000 soft modes3000 airplane2000railway1000bus0soft modesairplanerailwaybuspass.carpass.carPassenger transport volume 2050Passenger transport CO 2 2050120100806040200900080007000600050004000 soft modes3000 airplane2000railway1000bus0soft modesairplanerailwaybuspass.carpass.carFigure 2.Passenger transport volumes and CO 2 emissions in 2007 and in seven scenarios.Dotted lines signify (approximated) national emission targets.As these results show, many Finnish transport experts doubt that the emission targets will beachieved. However, a number of experts still consider it possible (if not necessarily probable) thattransport volumes, modal split and emissions will undergo radical changes.Significant changes can occur in various ways. Technological change is clearly one driving factor.However, Finland is a small market for cars with practically no domestic car industry, and it is clear thatother countries and their policies will have a larger role in determining the innovation process. WhatFinland can affect directly, however, is the type of cars that are imported to and bought in Finland. Theaverage new car emissions in Finland stayed at the high level of approx. 180 CO 2 g/km between the years2000 and 2007. From the beginning of 2008, the car acquisition tax has been based on the carbon431