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4008. FUTURES METHODS
NEED AND USEFULNESS FOR FUTURE FORESIGHT –ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING OF THE RESCUESERVICES IN FINLAND: TREND ANALYSIS AND FUTURESCENARIOS 2025+Esko KaukonenThe Emergency Services College, FinlandABSTRACT – This exploration and developing project, sponsored by the Fire Protection Fund andthe Emergency Services College, was carried out during spring 2010 in four workshop sessions and inone seminar. The workshop sessions were participated by the Future Foresight Council of RescueServices in Finland, which is a networking coalition anticipating future changes in Rescue Service'soperational environment and having members from the Ministry of Interior, Regional StateAdministrative Agency, Rescue Departments, The Finnish National Rescue Association and EmergencyServices College. The seminar was participated by the Executive Committee of the Forum of the RescueServices’ Administration.The central part of the project was the trend and scenario analysis. Earlier, at 2008, the rescueservices aimed at understanding the changes of its operational environment through trend analysisand scenario planning. In relation to the updating of the earlier (2008) scenarios of the rescue servicesthe names of the three scenarios (The World of Sustainable Development, The Market Driven Worldand The World of Closed States and Alliances) were maintained the same in the updated scenariomodel. Also some fairly clear similarities to the scenarios of the Finnish Business and Policy Forum(EVA) were found although the perspective in these two models is inherently different. Only thescenario name The World of High Capitalism was decided to be changed to The Capitalistic Word inCrisis as it was considered that it would better describe the world for possibly unsuccessful recoverymeasures after the year 2008’s economic recession. Of the four scenarios the two first mentioned werethought to be positive from the perspective of sustainable development and the others two werethought to be negative. Each of these four scenarios was thought to bring their own kind ofopportunities and threats to the rescue services of Finland.Key words: Trends, Scenarios, Strategy, Scenario based strategic work process401
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Hanna Lakkala & Jarmo Vehmas (edito
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CONTENTSINTRODUCTION ..............
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Implementation of Total responsibil
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In addition, an expert panel chaire
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GROUPING AND RANKING THE EU-27 COUN
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objects, i.e. countries. The city b
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Motorization rate (number of cars/
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Cluster 7: Italy, SpainAs can be un
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The northwestern European cluster i
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ReferencesEurostat (2011) Eurostat
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The authors applied both the SUMMA
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3.1. SUMMA examplesEmissions are a
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sector not in the paid work sector
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sustainability. While non-use and e
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Figure 5.Fund-Flow analysis of Scot
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examination concern e.g. dispersal
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These interlinked themes strongly a
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Social sustainabilitySocial sustain
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Economic sustainabilityThe existenc
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Public transport is efficient (supp
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SECRETARIAT OF THE CONVENTION ON BI
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1. Introduction and BackgroundThe d
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3. Case StudiesTwo alternative scen
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(methodological, spatial and time-s
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Comparing with energy uses in Campa
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ESI 0.02 0.02 0.14 0.14% Renewable
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Kamm, B. - Kamm, M. (2004) Principl
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It is possible to identify five pre
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Case study applicationThe Cairngorm
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The language and terminology used b
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utility of MUSIASEM were less varie
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Our findings illustrate that relati
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McNie, E. C. 2007, "Reconciling the
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1. IntroductionRomania is a country
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Figure 2.The Manufacture sector has
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Figure 5.Between 2002 and 2006, Ele
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The database of net taxes on produc
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Serbanescu, I., 2007. Romania Under
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flows such as the residuals of prod
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Consumption (TMC) is a deriavite of
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6. Imported and Exported Material F
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points of view means that the use o
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TRENDS AND DRIVING FACTORS IN FINNI
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Figure 1.The interlinking of the fr
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Figure 3. The removal of total andc
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200150100500-50CO2FI/FECFIFECFI/VAF
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ReferencesBraczyk, P.H.J., Cooke, P
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“JUST BEGIN”A CASE STUDY IN CRE
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2. Materials and MethodsThe role of
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everyone some share in the land’s
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allowing for winter grazing and car
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Useful PrinciplesAn especially impo
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This approach necessarily has major
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POWERING THE FUTURE OF THE LEAST DE
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made interviews in a village that h
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was put on projects predominantly f
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(discussed in more detail in follow
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4. Solar Home System Program in Lao
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micro hydro has not received that m
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And the role of smaller scale solut
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has become in discourse level the m
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ReferencesBerliant, Leslie (2009) W
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DEVELOPING TIBET INTO A SPECIAL SUS
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are just a curiosity for festivals
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Environmental sustainabilityEnviron
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and towns under the reservoir. Howe
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ailways, airports and townships for
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(3) social needs: good relations an
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COPENHAGEN FAILURE AND NORTH-SOUTHD
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”whoever defines the terms of the
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Blair makes a division between deve
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Issue 3: Action suggestionsOne of t
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change as a serious problem and und
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aspects. Through the scrutiny of le
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50 000 ha are currently irrigated.
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Table 2.The main pieces of legislat
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Table 3.The main policy documents o
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However, the Zambian laws on sanita
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State House (2009). Updated on 16th
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Forum 2009). As agriculture is the
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2005; Levy and Newell 2002). These
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The virtual water ‘flows’ embed
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value given to the other members of
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countries of operation, promoting m
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Hoekstra, A.Y., Chapagain, A.K., (2
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1723. SUSTAINABLE CONSUMPTION
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guarantee the consumer’s opportun
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3. Growth of GDP doesn’t guarante
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Veblen’s observation on the inter
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overriding of the ‘interference o
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consumption has no centre point (or
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Habermas, J., 1968. Erkenntnis und
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2010). However, people who prioriti
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Table 2.Operationalizing of attitud
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material intensity, which is driven
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225 cases of serious illness per te
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instance, to tax labor in the frame
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Anderson, A., Harris, T., Tylavsky,
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Heiskala, R. (2000). Toiminta, tapa
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Rauh, V., Arunajadai, S., Horton, M
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MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM CONSUMPTION- TW
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possibilities to participate in the
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udgets were mostly selected by expe
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Figure 1.Material footprint of the
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eference budgets. A reduction in li
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Schmidt-Bleek,F. (2009) The Earth:
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A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR LIFE CYC
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Geels notes that for transitions to
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Hafkamp (2002), working from the ec
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4.1. LCT based analysis as a test f
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effect, this image establishes a vi
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management strategies, it has been
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5.2.3. Subsidiarity: Level of imple
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Council Directive. 2008. 2008/98/EC
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LAND USE FOR BIOENERGY PRODUCTION -
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Economic: part of the technical pot
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local food production system. Conse
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As can be seen from the graph above
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ReferencesBerndes G, Hoogwijk M, va
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DRIVERS AND BARRIERS TO SUSTAINABLE
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Figure 1.Dynamic and Folding Field
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esponses to an array of possible em
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Leadership and institutionsThe SEQC
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not preferable. Scenario 4: Transfo
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Figure 2.Practical responses across
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Wilber, Ken. 2001. A Theory of Ever
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2. Background and LiteratureSustain
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about environmental challenges. Sco
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interconnectedness of globalization
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ConclusionThe analysis of the data
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ReferencesAgenda 21, Chapter 36. Th
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2. Theory and LiteratureTo achieve
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There probably are professional dif
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design fields, 2 from economics and
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out. While there are some necessary
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J. (Eds.) Proceedings of LeNS Confe
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INNOVATIVE FISCAL POLICY IN THE CON
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3. A concept of innovative fiscal p
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transfers, and social contributions
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Although Finland can be ranked into
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which induced lower tax revenues -
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panacea; furthermore, unlegislated
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ReferencesAfonso, A. - Hauptmeier,
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In this paper are presented some fi
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The baseline scenario for 2011-2012
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Indirect effects: the increased wei
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AcknowledgementsThis paper was supp
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e added to the domestic hidden econ
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case when all household are involve
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(from 70.8% in 1997 to 63.1% in 200
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Appendix 1Shares of informal income
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H2 Estimations under the hypotheses
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1999). In this analysis the Finnish
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warming, growing environmental burd
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aggregate indicator. It is by no me
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Diefenbacher, H. 1994. The index of
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3147. CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY
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themselves - both in day-to-day bus
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3. How do we arrive at big picture?
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Figure 3.Pillars of sustainability
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That communication, networking, and
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companies already consider the sust
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1. IntroductionCompanies leading in
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Figure 1.Sources of InnovationExami
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penetration of disruptive innovatio
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introduced by Canon which eventuall
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Scenario 4 - Disruptive Era: This i
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Margolis, J.D. and Walsh, J. P. 200
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1. IntroductionTotal Quality manage
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Waddock and Graves, 1997). Neverthe
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organizations to discover and creat
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undertaken to pursue a sustainable
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and ways to enhance and effectively
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Waddock, SA & Graves, SB 1997. ‘T
Page 350 and 351: the company and its stakeholders. O
Page 352 and 353: persons. About 30% of the shares ar
Page 354 and 355: working groups and board of directo
Page 356 and 357: sustainability webpages and press r
Page 358 and 359: Näsi, Juha (1995) What is stakehol
Page 360 and 361: the indirect and inter-stakeholder
Page 362 and 363: In June 2005, the presidents of Uru
Page 364 and 365: examine the stakeholder relationshi
Page 366 and 367: Union expressed its’ support to t
Page 368 and 369: The analysis of this case illustrat
Page 370 and 371: Meyer, K. E., Mudambi, R. & Narula,
Page 372 and 373: (Vandenbergh 2007; McBarnet and Kur
Page 374 and 375: Finally, enforceability is another
Page 376 and 377: 3.2. OverviewThe legal scholarship
Page 378 and 379: law, transnational private regulati
Page 380 and 381: The SA8000, a certification based s
Page 382 and 383: As the analyzed literature shows, t
Page 384 and 385: Shaffer, G. and Pollack, M.A.., 201
Page 386 and 387: documents and to correct the disclo
Page 388 and 389: 2.2. The EU CSR disclosure regimeSi
Page 390 and 391: The decision laid down the path for
Page 392 and 393: 2011). More fundamental criticisms
Page 394 and 395: espect of the materiality of CSR re
Page 396 and 397: unexpected side effects as well. As
Page 398 and 399: HEITZMAN, S., WASLEY, C. E. & ZIMME
Page 402 and 403: 1. IntroductionThe Finnish society
Page 404 and 405: Figure 2.An analysis on effectivene
Page 406 and 407: In the following the scenarios are
Page 408 and 409: Development corresponds closest to
Page 410 and 411: THE SIGNIFICANCE OF WILD CARDS AND
Page 412 and 413: infrastructure sector. Thus, the ne
Page 414 and 415: consulted the right experts or if w
Page 416 and 417: Tampere area and Lapin Kansa is pub
Page 418 and 419: Here are just a few examples of the
Page 420 and 421: transparent decision-making. If pol
Page 422 and 423: Local and Regional Authorities.http
Page 424 and 425: DELPHI ON TRANSPORT AND CO 2 EMISSI
Page 426 and 427: which had offered little informatio
Page 428 and 429: and sidewalks. The use and ownershi
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Page 434 and 435: Finnish Government (2008) Long-term
Page 436 and 437: ANALYSING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF ROA
Page 438 and 439: developed countries but not globall
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Page 442 and 443: analysis and literature survey form
Page 444 and 445: However, the survey did not give in
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The structure and aims of the paper
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Table 1.Steps of the ANT-derived me
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After the first iteration the impor
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in the real world? Since the lack o
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SMALL STEP TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE TRAN
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Quantitative content analysis was p
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general, attitudes towards car tax
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Future orientation of the discussio
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public, there were little possibili
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46810. SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
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meaningful components and compares
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fuel combustion. Positive values fo
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We analyse the changes in the count
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200180160140120100806040200Activity
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has had considerable impact on CO 2
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The structural decomposition analys
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Intensity effect on Final Energy Co
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%China, factors affecting CO 2 emis
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4. ConclusionsThe decomposition ana
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MICROALGAE AS A BIOFUEL FEEDSTOCK:
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are dominating the international ag
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3.1.3. BiodiversityBiodiversity is
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Moreover, people attach more and mo
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important role in tackling with or
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Spolaore P., Joannis C. C., Duran E
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DESIGNING SUSTAINABLE INNOVATIONSK.
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disciplines and socialised in diffe
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5. Corporate contextKSB is a medium
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Most important, BOS does not touch
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ongoing or expected changes in the
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1Idea andevaluation2Clarif. ofobjec
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Arthur. 2009. The Nature of Technol
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SUSTAINABILITY AWARENESS IN DESIGN
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Figure 1.Left: The various roles of
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longer product centred. It is widel
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the competence to help develop dema
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Figure 4.Survey framework: Dimensio
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gap. In our survey, the lack of con
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SUSTAINABILITY AND INDUSTRIAL DESIG
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“memories of the future” that e
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that it is quite common for compani
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3. How will sustainability change:
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e sensitive to sustainability as th
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Industrial Designers Society of Ame
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