trends and future of sustainable development - TransEco

DELPHI ON TRANSPORT AND CO 2 EMISSIONS– FINNISH SCENARIOS UP TO 2050Vilja Varho, Petri Tapio and Laura JokiFinland Futures Research Centre, University of TurkuContact: vilja.varho@utu.fi, vilja.varho@fidea.fiffrc.utu.fi/en/research/projects/cast.html, www.fidea.fi1. Introduction: Transport and the climate challengeThe transport sector has an interesting role in the society, as it is mainly seen as a means to an end,rather than an end in itself. Transport is important for both the economy and for social needs. In themodern societies, we move both material and people over ever-increasing distances, it seems. The costsand policies affecting transport modes tend to be measured by how much they restrict the movement ofgoods and people, and thereby hinder economic and social sustainability.At the same time, the transport sector struggles to achieve environmental sustainability. It is noteasy, as transport tends to cause noise, particle emissions, acidifying emissions, danger to animals, etc.In this paper, we will limit the discussion of environmental impacts to carbon dioxide. It is the mostimportant greenhouse gas causing climate change (IPCC 2007). Efforts to limit CO 2 emissions from thetransport sector in the European Union have not been as successful as reduction efforts in general (Fig.1)1401201008060transporttotal CO2402001990 1995 2000 2005Figure 1.Total and transport CO 2 emissions from EU-27 countries 1990-2008, index year1990=100 (EEA 2011).The efforts to cut CO 2 emissions have increased recently in scope and intensity. For example, theEuropean Union has introduced several important traffic-related climate policies. In 2008, theEuropean Union agreed on a number of directives and other policies, known as the Climate and energy424