trends and future of sustainable development - TransEco

fuel combustion. Positive values for this factor in Figure 1 imply increasing use of electricity instead ofother energy carriers (taking into account that the efficiency of condensing power production is usuallyquite low). Negative values would imply an opposite direction of change, i.e. technological changes suchas switch to combined heat and power (CHP) production instead of separate heat and electricityproduction.The third factor, FEC/GDP-factor, refers to the energy intensity of the whole economy. This can beinfluenced by several reasons such as changes in the industrial structure from energy intensive to lessenergy intensive industrial branches, change from industry towards services in terms of GDP shares, ortechnological development inside energy- consuming fields of the economy. Negative values for thisfactor in Figure 1 imply that India has decreased the energy intensity due to the reasons provided above.Positive values would imply an increasing effect to CO 2 emissions due change towards a more energyintensive structure of the economy.The fourth factor, GDP/POP-factor refers to the amount of economic activity per capita which can beinfluenced foremost by economic growth. The positive values for this factor in Figure 1 imply thatcontinuous economic growth per capita has increased CO 2 emissions. Negative values would imply adecreasing effect to CO 2 emissions due to decreasing GDP per capita.The fifth factor, POP-factor refers to change in the amount of population which is influenced by birthand death rates as well as by international migration. The positive values for this factor in Figure 1 implythat quite fast population growth has considerably contributed to the increase of CO 2 emissions fromfuel combustion in India. Negative values would imply a decreasing effect to CO 2 emissions due todecrease in the amount of population.The last set of bars shows the total change of CO 2 emissions in India as a sum of the five factorspresented above. Between the years 1973 and 1980 the absolute CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion hasincreased quite slowly, but during the time periods 1973-1990, 1973-2001 and 1973-2007 the increase inemissions has been faster. The shift to fossil fuel use, decreased efficiency of energy transformationchain, economic growth per capita and population growth have contributed to CO 2 emission growth.These factors have overrun the decreasing factor of the reduction of energy intensity of the economyresulting in a considerable increase of CO 2 emissions.3. ResultsThe CO 2 emissions and emissions per capita of the economies under investigation are presented in Fig.2. The data is from IEA (2009). In the statistics have data for China, India and Brazil starting from 1971and for Russia only starting from 1990. The changes in the emissions show quite different trendsindicating the differences in economic processes in these countries. The factors behind these differenttrends are analysed using decomposition analysis.472