trends and future of sustainable development - TransEco

flood of environmental immigrants cannot be stopped. Finland is becoming multicultural, but thedevelopment is uncontrolled and unwelcomed by the Finns. There are a strong tension between theimmigrants and the Finns. The low public funding requires a reorganizing of the rescue services.During the scenario process the target of interest turned to the four alternative descriptions of theFinnish Business and Policy Forum (EVA) published in a report in 2009 of how the world might developin consequence to the economic crisis (figure 4).The West sheds its SkinChinese CapitalismBattle of AlliancesStimulus and CollapseFigure 4. The four scenarios of EVA (EVA 2009, 8)In the scenario The West sheds its Skin the western countries quickly recover from the economiccrisis with the USA on the lead. In 2020 the world is still led by the USA and Europe but not on theterms of the western countries. Finland recovers from the economic recession with relatively minordamages. After the crisis the world economy will develop in the same direction as in the beginning of the2000s. The problems will not disappear, but the challenges and the possibilities are of the same type asbefore the economic crisis. (EVA 2009, 45–46.)In the scenario Chinese Capitalism Asia will recover faster than the western countries from theeconomic crisis with China and other rising economies on the lead. In 2020 the focus of the economy isshifting towards Asia and the wealthy OPEC countries in the Middle East. In this scenario Finland mightsucceed extremely well or extremely poorly. The world economy grows quickly but the economic andpolitical focus has shifted to Asia. This means that Finland is forced to a considerable structural change.(EVA 2009, 46–47.)In the scenario Battle of the Alliances the economic crisis leads to a deep global recession. Theeconomic nationalism and the rise of state capitalism lead to a battle between different economic areas.The world will recover slowly from the recession. Finland with its export driven economy will haveconsiderable difficulties. Fortunately the inner markets of the EU and the Russian market are booming.When the cooperation between the EU and Russia strengthens, Finland might have an importantposition on the Baltic Sea area. (EVA 2009, 49–50.)In the scenario Stimulus and Collapse the world will dive into a prolonged period of low economicgrowth. After unsuccessful attempts of economic recovery measures taken the economic system willcollapse and by 2020 the world is on adrift without a clear leader. The economic life in Finland is dividedto serve the domestic market and the demand for international expertise. Finland is forced tosignificantly reduce public services and public investments. (EVA 2009, 51–52.)The future scenarios of the rescue services and EVA were compared and the correspondencesbetween the scenario models are presented in figure 5. The scenario The World of Sustainable407