trends and future of sustainable development - TransEco

In our case, the expert methods are mainly producing views for the long-term. Some expert methods,here the web-survey for hauliers, is used mainly to support the data analysis and is useful also for the shorttermanalysis. Web-survey for hauliers and the literature survey done in the KULJETUS-project are seen astools for environmental scanning, and thus presenting also the engineering approach. The goal for the Delphisurvey is to ask the experts to estimate and argue the long-term development considering the aggregates andkey ratios in the framework in Figure 1. As an example, we can ask the experts, what the possibilities are forchanges in a key ratio, such as empty running, and by which actors, in this case e.g. transport companiestogether with trade and industry. The Delphi study can be stated to be a systems thinking method whereasthe workshops in the KULJETUS-project are mainly a participatory method. In this case the workshops areused as a converging method where for instance different scenarios can be sketched.As our conclusions, we state that the two timeframes, short-term and long-term projectionsconsidering the sustainability of road freight transport especially in the context of CO 2 emissions in theframework presented in Figure 1 should be addressed with different methods. This holds especially forstatistical modelling, where we can assume that the trend extrapolation generates feasible results for theshort-term, in this case approximately for the next 5 years, whereas for the long-term these results arenot practicable. The Delphi method could also support the short-term projections, but in our case we usethe method particularly to get expert views and arguments for the long-term development.The different methods and the information and data they produce can be merged e.g. into a futurestable. We emphasise creating several images of the futures or scenarios and these can exploitinformation and data produced by any of the methods discussed here. We assume that the interestingones will probably be some combinations of the information and data originating from several methods.However, for the sake of decision-making we will have to produce a limited number of projections inorder to a have an approachable set of alternatives from which to draw implications for the stakeholders.In the KULJETUS-project we limited our scope to explore particular methods producing differentsources of information. In future, also the whole scope of futures research methods should be assessed tofind whether there are methods that would produce additional or better quality information related tothe framework in Figure 1. After the KULJETUS-project is completed, also the methods used hereshould be evaluated to define the usefulness and compatibility of the results, and based on this considere.g. what ought to be done in a different way.ReferencesAaltonen, M. (2009) Appendix: Evaluation and organisation of futures research methodology - version3.0. In Integration, Comparisons, and Frontiers of Futures Research Methods in Futures researchmethodology – version 3.0. The Millennium Project.Banister, D., Hickman, R., Stead, D. (2008) Looking over the horizon: visining and backcasting. InPerrels, A., Himanen, V., Lee-Gosselin, M. (eds.) Building blocks for sustainable transport:obstacles, trends, solutions. Bingley, Emerald.COM/2011/0144. White paper: Roadmap to a single European transport area - Towards a competitiveand resource efficient transport system.Cooper, J., Black, I., Peters, M. (1998) Creating the sustainable supply chain: Modelling the keyrelationships. In: Banister, D. (ed.) Transport Policy and the environment. London, E & FN SPON.445