trends and future of sustainable development - TransEco

We analyse the changes in the countries under investigation looking at the changes in their primaryenergy supply and carrying out decomposition analysis of the CO 2 emissions. Because one of the mainfactors decreasing the emissions is the decrease in energy intensity of production (FEC/GDP effect) wehave carried out a decomposition of the structural change in the economy in order to see how thestructural change affects the final energy consumption.BrazilWhen we look at the primary energy sources in Brazil in Fig. 4 we can identify considerable changes inthe use of different energy source.250Primary energy sources in Brazil (Mtoe)20015010050Combustible renewablesHydroNuclearNatural gasPetroleum productsCrude oilCoal and coal products01971 1980 1990 2000 2007Figure 4. Primary energy sources in Brazil 1973 – 2007 (IEA 2009).The use of oil has increased considerably in Brazil even though its share has not increased after1980. There is also increase in coal use and natural gas use leading to increase in CO 2 emissions. Theshare of renewable energy has been quite high in the Brazilian energy mix and the use of biomass basedenergy is high in international comparison. The use of hydro electricity has also increased considerably.If we look at the factors affecting CO 2 emissions as a result of decomposition analysis in Fig. 5, wecan see that the population growth together with economic growth have been the major drivers inincreasing the emission. Also the shift to fossil based energy has been increasing the emissions as can beseen in the factor CO 2 /TPES. The energy transformation chain (mainly electricity production andrefineries) has also contributed to increased emissions. This is mainly due to the increased share ofelectricity in the final energy consumption (see Fig. 6) and the ‘normal’ low efficiency of thermalelectricity production.474