trends and future of sustainable development - TransEco

CO 2 ECONOMY IN THE BRIC COUNTRIESDECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS OF BRAZIL, RUSSIA, INDIA AND CHINAJyrki Luukkanen, Juha Panula-Ontto, Jarmo Vehmas, Jari Kaivo-oja, Francesca Allievi,Tytti Pasanen, Petri Tapio and Burkhard AuffermannFinland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku, FinlandABSTRACT – This article analyses the factors that impact the amount of CO 2 emissions and energyuse in the so called BRIC-countries, Brazil, Russia, India and China. Different factors having an effectin the greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are analysed using decomposition analysis. Inmathematical decomposition analysis, the observed change in explained variable is divided inmeaningful components. The shares of these components can be compared and the change in theshares over time can be studied.We have conducted two different types of decomposition analyses. The first one is chaineddecomposition analysis, in which the observed change in CO 2 is decomposed to four intensity factorsand an extensive factor, population. The second decomposition analysis is a structural decompositionanalysis of the final energy use. In this decomposition the change in final energy use in agricultural,industrial and service sectors are decomposed into activity, intensity and structural effects.The results of the decomposition analyses indicate on the one hand some similar trends ofconvergence in the three economies. This can be interpreted to be caused be the globalisation of theeconomic processes, which directs the production processes of the companies to develop in similarpatterns. On the other hand, there are also differences in the development trends caused by thedifferent structures of the economies.1. IntroductionThis article analyses the factors that impact the amount of CO 2 emissions and energy use in the so calledBRIC-countries, Brazil, Russia, India and China. The general consensus is that the BRIC term was firstprominently used in a Goldman Sachs report from 2003, which speculated that by 2050 these foureconomies would be wealthier than most of the current major economic powers. The BRIC thesis positsthat China and India will become the world's dominant suppliers of manufactured goods and services,respectively, while Brazil and Russia will become similarly dominant as suppliers of raw materials. It'simportant to note that the Goldman Sachs thesis isn't that these countries are a political alliance (like theEuropean Union) or a formal trading association - but they have the potential to form a powerfuleconomic bloc. BRIC is now also used as a more generic term to refer to these four emerging economies.The different factor that have an effect in the greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are analysedusing decomposition analysis. Decomposition analysis divides the change in CO 2 emissions in469