trends and future of sustainable development - TransEco

2. Materials and MethodsThe role of scenario workSince the early 1990s, there have been several important global scenario projects concerned withsustainability. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) first published scenarios ofgreenhouse gas emissions and climate change in 1990 (Houghton, Jenkins and Ephraums, eds. 1990).In 1996-97, the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) worked with about fortymember companies to produce global, 50-year scenarios on business and the environment (WBCSD,1997). In 2005, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment developed scenarios on the future of ecosystemsand human well-being. (Carpenter, S.R. et al, 2005)I was part of the core team facilitating the 1997 WBCSD scenarios and charged with writing up thescenario that postulated markets would manage the environmental crisis. However, this scenario wasjust a statement of faith, so I wrote a paper titled, “Can Markets Manage Ecosystems?” This showedsustainability would fail if it relied on existing institutions, obliging societies to create new agreements.But how might that happen? (Heinzen, B. 1997)As the WBCSD assignment was ending, I was asked by Arthur Muliro, a Kenyan at the Society forInternational Development, to help design and facilitate what became the first of four major publicinterest scenario exercises in East Africa between 1998 and 2008. SID started in Kenya (Institute ofEconomic Affairs, Kenya and Society for International Development, 2000), then worked in Tanzania(Society for International Development, 2003) and Uganda (Society for International Development,2004). This national work was followed scenarios for the larger East African region (Society forInternational Development 2008b). Each project lasted 18-24 months and, among other activities,included five workshops lasting 2-3 days each. 1During the national scenario projects, the conversation was dominated by each country’s politicaluncertainties; environmental challenges were largely ignored. That changed during the East Africanexercise. First, the team began exploring the competing legacies of Western culture and older precolonialAfrican systems. Living with the duality of these legacies became a critical theme, firstdescribed in the State of East Africa Report for 2007 (Heinzen, B. and Eyakuze, A., 2007). Second,environmental degradation and climate change became more urgent issues, reflected in the 2008 Stateof East Africa Report, “Nature Under Pressure”. (Society for International Development, 2008a) Third,participants debated what might happen if East African political leaders repeatedly ignored the needs ofordinary urban and rural people. This theme defined the third East African scenario: “Usiniharakishe”-“Don’t Rush Me!”. (Society for International Development, 2008.)1To see all the publications produced during these scenario projects and general information about the East AfricanProgramme, visit the SID website, http://www.sidint.net/themes-programmes/east-african-scenarios-programme/.98