trends and future of sustainable development - TransEco

meaningful components and compares the shares of these components. In addition to the chaineddecomposition analysis of five different factors affecting the emissions, we have also carried out astructural decomposition analysis of the final energy use component comparing the activity, intensityand structural effects on the agricultural, industrial and service sector energy use.We have carried out the decomposition analysis for Brazil, Russia, India and China. These economieshave a major role in future climate policy and the attempts to reduce greenhouse gases in a sustainablelevel.2. MethodAdvanced Sustainability Analysis (ASA) is a mathematical information system developed by the FinlandFutures Research Centre. It can be used to analyze macro-economic development from differentsustainability points of view (see Kaivo-oja et al, 2001; 2002; Luukkanen et al. 2002a; 2002b; 2002c;Malaska et al, 2003; Vehmas et al, 2003; Kaivo-oja, 2004). ASA focuses on analyzing changes inenvironmental stress (ES) or social welfare (WF) or other factors, measured with different indicators.ASA is different from other sustainability analysis methods such as “ecological footprint” or “ecologicalrucksack”, which strive to provide an absolute measure of the state of environmental sustainability only.ASA deals with environmental, social and economic dimensions of sustainability, and it revealsinformation about the direction of change - whether it is towards or away from sustainability. Thismakes ASA a more practical tool for policy analysis. ASA has been used to measure and analyze severalsustainability-related phenomena such as dematerialization of production, immaterialization ofconsumption, rebound effects, sustainable economic growth and sustainable technology development rate.The method of ASA is a complete decomposition analysis in order to divide the total change ofresearched variable into different components which are called factors. The sum of all identified anddecomposed factors equals to the total change of variable under investigation. Different decompositiontechniques have been developed mainly in the field of energy studies for modelling changes in e.g.energy use or energy intensity (see e.g. Rose & Casler, 1996; Ang & Zhang, 2000). The main features ofASA include applying the decomposition technique into sustainable development indicators andinterpreting the decomposed factors as indicators either advancing or threatening sustainability. Thecomplete decomposition method used in this study is described below.The ASA carried out in this study identifies five different factors behind the change in CO 2 emissionfrom fuel combustion (see Figure 1). The factors are described and interpreted in the following. Thestarting points in interpreting the bars presented in Figure 1 are that (1) four different time periods witha same base year (1973) are represented in the same picture, each time period with a different colour ineach bar set, (2) each factor affecting the change in CO 2 emissions during each time period is presentedin a set of bars, and (3) the sum of all factors equals to the total change in CO 2 emissions from fuelcombustion and is presented in the last set of bars labelled “Total”.470