trends and future of sustainable development - TransEco

3. How will sustainability change: three scenariosThis section draws insights from three exploratory scenarios that were created for STX Europe as a partof FIMECC’s 1 Innovation & Networks-program. The scenario details were targeted at the specific contextof STX Europe but the as the basis of these scenarios was in the general developments of sustainability,the principal ideas in each scenario are usable here as well. The scenarios were created using futurematrixes and the scenario filter model (see Leppimäki et al. 2003) as the main tools. The followingcontains a short introduction to each scenario. The weak signals or wild cards to each scenario are notdiscussed in detail due to the limited space available here and due to the scope of this paper.Scenario 1: Sustainable FailureThe Sustainable Failure-scenario is a society-driven scenario in which sustainability fails to gathercritical mass behind it and fails to become a top priority in the society. The scenario suggests that thedebate on sustainability continues, dominated by selfish interests and no clear vision or agreement onwhat should be done, how or when. Progress in sustainability is slow, as the data on sustainability issuesremains complex and hard to evaluate. Legislation is not very effective in improving sustainability,focusing on reactive measures. Consumers and the society value sustainability in theory, but it does notguide practical action. Other issues such as economical downturns easily overshadow sustainability as ithas little meaning to most people.Scenario 2: Clean TechnologyDriven by technological change, the Clean Technology-scenario suggests that the fear and signs ofclimate change lead to a rapid development of clean technologies especially in the area of energyprovision. Trust and belief in technology becomes very strong and in the wake of clean energy,technology becomes a driver of sustainability in many areas such as material technologies. Many seeenvironmental sustainability as a solved issue as the threat of climate change is alleviated through cleanenergy provision. Legislation is very climate-focused, setting goals and giving relatively muchresponsibility for companies to find the best ways to meet these goals.Scenario 3: Aware ConsumersIn the market-driven Aware Consumers-scenario, business-as-usual actions have resulted in seriouscatastrophes, bringing sustainability problems to the footsteps of everyone. This has lead to a change inconsumer behaviour and attitudes: sustainability has become the main purchase and assessmentcriteria. Trust in corporations and companies as the drivers of sustainability is low and NGO’s play amore important role. Moreover, boycott’s and straight action is not uncommon and people are generally1FIMECC (Finnish Metal Engineering Industry Competence Cluster) is a company that “works to boost strategicresearch in metals and engineering industries.” (FIMECC 2011). For more information, see www.fimecc.com.532