trends and future of sustainable development - TransEco

The structural decomposition analysis for Russia indicates that the activity effect has been mainlyreducing final energy use except for the later 2000’s. The intensity effects in agricultural and industrialsectors have increased energy use except for industry in the later 2000’s. The energy intensity in theservice sector has contributed to the reduction of energy use throughout the examined period. Thestructural effect indicates a clear trend towards service oriented economy. This is remarkable when weestimate the future development of Russian economy and its CO 2 emissions. The total effect of Fig. 10dshows that the changes in industrial production have been most important in reducing the energyconsumption of the economy.IndiaThe strong growth in coal and oil consumption in India (as shown in Fig. 11) has mainly contributed theincrease in CO 2 emissions. Even though the use of renewable energy has grown its share has decreasedfrom over 63 % in 1971 to 29 % in 2007 it still forms a considerable amount of energy compared withmany other countries.700Primary energy sources in India (Mtoe)600500400300200100Combustible renewablesHydroNuclearNatural gasPetroleum productsCrude oilCoal and coal products01971 1980 1990 2000 2007Figure 11. Primary energy sources in India (IEA 2009).The decomposition analysis of factors affecting the CO 2 emissions in India is shown in Fig. 12. Thepercentage figures are remarkable due to the very low starting level of emissions in the year 1971, whichserves as the reference value. The analysis indicates considerable shift towards fossil fuels as can be seenin Fig. 11 and the CO 2 /TPES factor in Fig. 12. The decrease of efficiency in the energy transformationprocesses (indicated by TPES/FEC and caused mainly by the increasing use of electricity, see Fig. 6) hasalso contributed to the increase in emissions. The decrease of energy intensity of production has beenthe only contributing factor decreasing emissions. Economic growth (GDP per capita) and fastpopulation growth have contributed in increasing the emissions.480