trends and future of sustainable development - TransEco

emissions of the car, and the annual vehicle tax was changed in the same way in 2010. These changesseem to have had a significant impact on the type of cars Finns buy, as the average emissions havedeclined (Fig. 3).200150100500Figure 3.2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Average emissions of new passenger cars in Finland 2000-2010. (Source: FinnishTransport Safety Agency 2011.)While there has been clear improvement, the current level of 150 g/km is still far from the EU targetsof 120 g/km by 2012 and 95 g/km by 2020 (EU 2009c). In general, Finns have favoured fairly large cars.According to one interviewee, Finns buy cars with which they can transport five people and the week’sgroceries to the summer cottage once a year, even if the car is used to take one person to work the rest ofthe year. In all scenarios, there was an assumption that small cars would become slightly or significantlymore popular and that the attitude towards owning a car in general would remain similar to date orbecome slightly more negative.It is also notable that there was no vision among the experts that the transport volumes could growfast but a technology leap could solve the emission problems. A simultaneous study on adolescents’views did find this type of thinking (Tapio et al. 2011a). Even in the long run, changes in behaviour thatwould reduce transport needs and change the modal split were seen to be of paramount importance.Sometimes experts are overly pessimistic about the environmental values of ordinary people, andassume that failure to choose environmentally benign options is a direct result of lacking environmentalconsciousness (Salmela & Varho 2006). In this study, however, experts often emphasised theimportance of routines and practical difficulties involved in changing transport behaviour. Bothinfrastructure and behaviour take time to change on a wider scale.One of the key changes in the scenarios was seen to be the transfer of both passenger and freighttransport from road to rail. This would require heavy investments into the railway network. Certain localrailway, subway and tram initiatives would also be important.Methods that would restrict movement in other ways than making transport more expensive werenot envisioned. Certainly it is hard to see how they could be implemented in the European Union wherethe free movement of goods and people has always been a priority. Movement is clearly part of socialsustainability as well. However, the need to move may change, as the population lives increasingly in432