Historical Dictionary of Terrorism Third Edition

GAME THEORY • 207– G –GAL. See ANTITERRORIST LIBERATION GROUPS.GAME THEORY. An interdisciplinary mix of applied mathematicsand economics used to model human decision making in varioussituations. Game theory was one of the byproducts of the multidisciplinary“operations research” of the Allies during World War II todevelop the most efficient use of limited resources and most effectivestrategies and tactics. Following World War II the RAND Corporationused game theory in developing the strategy of nuclear deterrence.In game theory, a “game” is defined as an activity involving atleast two players who interact in order to achieve certain outcomes.Game theory has been used to model and analyze political campaigningand investment decisions, as well as optimizing wartime tacticsand strategies, analyzing criminal behavior, and choosing optimalpolice investigation and prevention methods. Most conflicts can beanalyzed as “zero-sum games,” that is, an interaction in which oneside can gain or “win” but only at the expense of the other participant,who “loses.” Studies of conflict resolution seek solutions that canconvert zero-sum games into “plus-sum” games, that is, interactionsthat benefit both parties.The various forms of terrorism can be analyzed as zero-sumgames. For example, if ethnonational terrorists succeed in theirgoal of creating an independent homeland, then the targeted nationstateloses territory, power, and prestige. Counterterrorism effortshave sought to apply game theory to disrupt the internal organizationand morale of terrorist groups. The classical game theory situation ofthe “prisoners’ dilemma” is used to turn ordinary criminals againsteach other: two partners in crime may have a rational self-interest insticking to a common alibi and not testifying against each other, particularlyif the investigators lack concrete physical evidence againstthem. But once the two prisoners are separated and interrogated individually,the investigators can play on each suspect’s distrust thatthe other suspect might testify against him as part of a plea bargainto get both of them separately to testify against each other. A variantof this game theory tactic was the supergrass strategy used by Britishand Northern Ireland security forces to turn Irish Republican