Historical Dictionary of Terrorism Third Edition

212 • GRAY-AREA PHENOMENONresearcher to the U.S. government in late October 2001. Although neitherbin Laden nor Ayman al Zawahiri was captured or killed in foursubsequent U.S. and allied military operations against the Zhawar Kilicave complex in November 2001 and in January, February, and Aprilof 2002, these operations still led to the elimination of large numbers ofterrorists and munitions. The author cautioned that good human intelligenceand fieldwork were essential in order to apply GIS and remotesensingtechnology effectively to counterterrorism efforts.Another GIS method useful in ordinary crime prevention thatalso has antiterrorism applications is “hot-spot analysis,” in whichnumbers of various types of crimes are mapped in various policejurisdictions to identify not only the likelihood of certain crimes occurringor clustering in specific locations but also how the incidenceof such crimes typically varies through a 24-hour cycle. Althoughhot-spot analysis has been used more routinely for common crime,either in helping to identify serial offenders by the range and timingof their attacks or by providing cost-effective countermeasures inhigh-crime areas (e.g., closed-circuit television [CCTV] monitoringof department stores or shopping mall parking lots to prevent thefts),these same techniques could be used to identify or deter the attackson people and property associated with entrepreneurial terrorismin the animal rights or antiabortion movements. In fact, recoveredCCTV footage proved valuable in identifying the perpetrators andevents of the London subway bombings in 2005.GRAY-AREA PHENOMENON (GAP). Term devised by XavierRaufer, a French sociologist of political violence, to describe thespread of ungovernability in politically unstable nations that has ledto other international problems in the post–cold war era. Althoughmany analysts, such as Aaron Wildavsky, Max Singer, and FrancisFukuyama, believed that the post–cold war era would herald a slowbut inevitable spread of democratization and free-market economicsystems and the development of a vibrant, autonomous civil societyin the developing nations of the world, Raufer argued instead that theweakness of the nation-state system in many postcolonial countries,the lack of legitimacy of many of the authoritarian regimes, and theresurgence of ethnonationalist and religious fundamentalist movementswould create more instability in such states. Large areas ofthese states would become ungovernable “gray areas” and fall under