Historical Dictionary of Terrorism Third Edition

lxviii • INTRODUCTIONmaterials for a “dirty bomb” that could lead to serious contamination.Therefore the danger of this form of radiological assault on the lowerend of the spectrum of mass terrorism should not be discounted.Having noted the possible changes in motivation and tactics, forthe foreseeable future the weapons of choice will still be the gun andthe bomb. Their sophistication and destructive power will increase,and they will probably remain the rule and not become the exception.Those who continue to practice terrorism will for the most part still bemotivated by the classic demands for self-determination, striking backat what they perceive to be repressive regimes, as well as the othertraditional causes that impel individuals and groups to engage in classichostage taking, bombings, and assassinations. The majority of theseevents will result from territorial disputes over land and, increasingly,over scarce resources.While the old ideological classifications of left and right as a meansof understanding the basis of terrorism will in all probability be ofeven less significance, as the ideological issues used by adversariesduring the cold war diminish, this does not portend an end of ideologyas the motivation or justification for acts and campaigns of terrorism.First, in the uneven and dangerous transition from authoritarian rule todemocracy, the possibility of reaction cannot be discounted as peoplelook back nostalgically to the ancien régime because their expectationsof the new order to resolve their problems have been disappointed.Second, the force of fundamentalism and, in particular, those religiousfundamentalisms that do not separate church from state will remaina potent force for those who employ terrorism as a weapon in theircontemporary crusades. Middle Eastern ayatollahs or their Americancounterparts will continue to exploit religious beliefs to justify the carnageinflicted by terrorism. One should also note that the motivationsfor terrorism will probably become more diffuse as a wide variety ofsingle-interest groups move beyond the politics of protest and extremisminto the realm of terrorism. These groups will be particularly difficultto identify since they may be small and, as noted earlier, have notrack record. Finally, the convergence between criminal enterprises andterrorism will continue, especially in geographical areas where thereis little or no effective government. The law of the jungle is bound tobecome more lethal as a new generation of criminally inspired terroristsacting under the guise of politics have more sophisticated weapons attheir disposal.