The Nordic Countries and the European Security and Defence Policy

THE CASE OF SWEDEN 149the navy will be around 33 years old. Operational capabilities in both the longand the short runs will obviously be severely affected.V. ConclusionsSweden’s 2004 defence policy constitutes an important political step forward.Sweden fully embraces the ESDP and makes it and the related operations itspriority. There are, however, still areas where old thinking prevails, such as‘non-participation in military alliances’, neutrality and reluctance to engage incooperation against terrorism.While the rhetoric is laudable, the facts are less encouraging. It seemsextremely dubious that the Swedish Armed Forces will succeed in carryingthrough a massive transformation and enhancement of operational capabilitieswithin a budget that is very tight and which will require drastic cuts in bothpersonnel and equipment. Aside from the battle group, it is open to questionwhether Sweden will be able on this showing to take its share of responsibilityfor the development of the military capabilities of the European Union. It is alsodoubtful whether the planned battle group will materialize, among other reasonsbecause of a possible lack of trained personnel.PostscriptThere has been a lot of turbulence in the Swedish Armed Forces in 2005. Onthe one hand, the Swedish Government seems committed to the realization ofthe Nordic EU battle group. On the other hand, a number of officers have beenfired; others have left voluntarily. The result is that a surplus of 1000 officersnow has been turned into a deficit of 500. 34 The financial situation is stillprecarious in spite of the large-scale rationalizations and base closures. GeneralHåkan Syrén, the Supreme Commander of the SAF, has stated that any furtherreductions will have serious consequences. 35 The risk that such reductions willtake place is not negligible, in particular since the minority Social Democratgovernment seems to have given the Left and Green parties veto rights overissues regarding the defence budget. 36 It is difficult to understand how the goodintentions in the White Paper will be realized. Mao’s words about ‘paper tigers’seem highly applicable to the Swedish defence policy: ‘in appearance it is verypowerful but in reality it is nothing to be afraid of’.34 Försvarets forum, no. 4, 2005, p. 1.35 Swedish Armed Forces, ‘Försvarsmaktens komplettering till budgetunderlaget för år 2006’ [TheSwedish Armed Forces addition to the basic budget for 2006], Stockholm, 4 May 2005, URL , p. 2.36 Nilsson, D., ‘Försvarsuppgörelse upprör oppositionen’ [Defence settlement shocks the opposition],Svenska Dagbladet, 23 Sep. 2005, p. 15.