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THEORY IF IDENTIFYING COST-EFFECTIVE POMs
In theory, estimating ‘optimal’ programmes of measures is a simple proposition.
In other words, deriving algorithms to yield least-cost combinations of measures
implemented at various levels, subject to a series of constraint variables with prespecified
maximum or minimum relative or absolute values, is not a difficult exercise.
In fact, the ERBD project team approached its pilot study to identify a constrained
cost-effective programme of measures to achieve the anticipated water quality
standard for phosphorous in the Athboy Catchment in the ERBD in this very way.
Barring hydromorphological and groundwater pressures and having determined that
phosphorous is likely to be the sole surface water quality limiting pollutant in the
Athboy Catchment, with
• data from simulations of phosphorous loadings to surface waters in the Catchment
via the MIKE BASIN water quality modeling suite;
• an assessment of basic measures and their respective levels of implementation
in the jurisdictions that overlap the Athboy Catchment; and
• some literature-based costs and effectiveness estimates of a relatively
comprehensive list of phosphorous reduction measures;
an adequate collection of variables were on hand to estimate the ‘optimal’ programme
of measures for the Athboy Catchment via application of relatively simple linear
algebra. However, since
• the ERBD project team is not charged with the ultimate selection of programmes
of measures to be implemented in the Athoby Catchment (and since the
responsibility does lie with the lead local authorities); and
• ground-truthing the cost-effectiveness analysis inputs and communicating the
outputs must be done in direct consultation with local authority officials in the
Athboy Catchment (and since this action is to be taken as a follow-up to the initial
cost-effectiveness analysis);
the ERBD project team considers it unrealistic to expect those who will make the
final determinations of cost-effectiveness analysis variable inputs, including and
especially the constraint variables for the cost-minimisation calculations, to simply
work from a series of such algorithms.
Hence a user-friendly, web-based POMs selection feature with basic optimization
functionality is being developed and integrated into the project’s decision support
tool. With this feature, those who are charged with making these final determinations
should be able to draw upon the most recent and precise information relevant to
optimising their final preferred POMs to be implemented.
REALITY OF SELECTING AND IMPLEMENTING COST-EFFECTIVE POMs
Through its Athboy Catchment and other pilot applications, the ERBD project team
has come to realise that identifying constrained cost-effective POMs and ultimately
implementing them over a 5-year or longer period cannot take place in an analytical
vacuum, especially considering the fact that the project’ analysts do not have the
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