Tulsa Comprehensive Plan - PLANiTULSA

Land Use
chart 6: distribution by age Cohort, Tulsa Msa
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
His tory
P rojec tion
0%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Source: US Census Bureau (accessed via Moody’s Analytics)
seniors (65+)
experienced Working age (35-64)
Young adults (20-34)
Youth (0-19)
chart 7: Components of Population Change,
Tulsa Msa
1 4 ,0 0 0
1 3 ,0 0 0
1 2 ,0 0 0
1 1 ,0 0 0
1 0 ,0 0 0
9 ,0 0 0
8 ,0 0 0
7 ,0 0 0
6 ,0 0 0
5 ,0 0 0
4 ,0 0 0
3 ,0 0 0
2 ,0 0 0
1 ,0 0 0
0
-1 ,0 0 0
-2 ,0 0 0
-3 ,0 0 0
-4 ,0 0 0
-5 ,0 0 0
-6 ,0 0 0
N e t D o me s tic Migra tio n
N a tura l I nc re a s e (births m inus de a ths )
N e t Inte rna tiona l Migra tion
19911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
S eniors (65+)
E xperienced W orking Age (35-64)
Young Adults (20-34)
Youth (0-19)
Source: US Census Bureau (history) and Moody’s Analytics (projections).
Land Use
part iii:
Tulsa’s Future
Trends and drivers
demographic Trends
Like the rest of the United States, Tulsa’s population will
change dramatically over the next 30 years. The trends
indicate Tulsa will be made up of smaller households,
will have a more diverse population of domestic and
international immigrants, and will experience increased
competition for young people and laborers from other
cities.
The trend toward smaller households comes from
several factors, including age. Chart 6 illustrates the
Tulsa metropolitan area’s projected age profile up to
2030. Households made up of baby boomers (persons
born between 1946 and 1960) are more likely to have
just one or two people after their children move away.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2006, about
one third of Tulsa’s households had just one person;
over two thirds (69%) of households have one or
two people.
In-migration from around the country (domestic) and the
world (international) has provided an important share of the
Tulsa metropolitan area’s population growth, as illustrated
by Chart 7. This is likely to continue throughout the life
of this plan. In particular, the Hispanic community will
contribute significantly to Tulsa’s future growth. Between
2000 and 2006 the Tulsa metropolitan area’s Hispanic
community grew by 8.6% annually, and now represents
about 11.2% of the total population.
LU
14
July 2010
Tulsa comprehensive plan – Land Use