2120 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE VARIOUS SYSTEMS TO KEEP LAYING HENSTable 7.1: Increase in production costs (EU-15)Feed Units 1% SD 1 5% SD 10% SD 20% SDProducer Surplus Euro (millions) -20.21 0.46 -100.25 2.36 -198.65 4.92 -389.84 10.71Consumer Surplus Euro (millions) -3.60 0.51 -17.93 2.49 -35.59 4.96 -70.25 9.90Total Surplus Euro (millions) -23.80 0.04 -118.18 0.15 -234.25 0.24 -460.09 1.21Quantity Shell % 0.03 0.01 0.17 0.03 0.34 0.06 0.68 0.12Quantity Processed % -0.02 0.00 -0.09 0.02 -0.17 0.04 -0.35 0.08Quantity Alternative % -0.36 0.05 -1.78 0.23 -3.56 0.47 -7.10 0.95Price Shell % 0.03 0.00 0.13 0.02 0.27 0.05 0.53 0.10Price Processed % 0.02 0.00 0.11 0.02 0.22 0.04 0.45 0.08Price Alternative % 0.46 0.07 2.32 0.33 4.63 0.66 9.24 1.33Quantity Shell 3rd Country % 0.17 0.02 0.85 0.11 1.71 0.23 3.41 0.46Quantity Processed 3rd Country % 0.14 0.02 0.72 0.09 1.43 0.19 2.85 0.39Labour Units 1% SD 5% SD 10% SD 20% SDProducer Surplus Euro (millions) -4.05 0.08 -20.21 0.42 -40.32 0.84 -80.34 1.71Consumer Surplus Euro (millions) -0.72 0.09 -3.59 0.46 -7.19 0.91 -14.31 1.82Total Surplus Euro (millions) -4.77 0.01 -23.80 0.04 -47.51 0.07 -94.64 0.13Quantity Shell % 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.07 0.01 0.14 0.02Quantity Processed % 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.03 0.01 -0.07 0.02Quantity Alternative % -0.07 0.01 -0.36 0.04 -0.71 0.08 -1.42 0.17Price Shell % 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.05 0.01 0.11 0.02Price Processed % 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.09 0.02Price Alternative % 0.09 0.01 0.46 0.06 0.93 0.12 1.85 0.24Quantity Shell 3rd Country % 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.02 0.34 0.04 0.68 0.08Quantity Processed 3rd Country % 0.03 0.00 0.14 0.02 0.29 0.03 0.57 0.07Other Units 1% SD 5% SD 10% SD 20% SDProducer Surplus Euro (millions) -16.24 0.32 -80.70 1.64 -160.18 3.40 -315.38 7.23Consumer Surplus Euro (millions) -2.80 0.35 -13.97 1.75 -27.81 3.47 -55.17 6.85Total Surplus Euro (millions) -19.04 0.03 -94.67 0.11 -187.99 0.17 -370.55 0.72Quantity Shell % 0.03 0.00 0.13 0.02 0.27 0.04 0.53 0.09Quantity Processed % -0.01 0.00 -0.07 0.02 -0.14 0.03 -0.27 0.06Quantity Alternative % -0.28 0.03 -1.39 0.16 -2.77 0.32 -5.55 0.64Price Shell % 0.02 0.00 0.10 0.02 0.21 0.04 0.42 0.07Price Processed % 0.02 0.00 0.09 0.01 0.17 0.03 0.35 0.06Price Alternative % 0.36 0.05 1.80 0.23 3.61 0.46 7.22 0.92Quantity Shell 3rd Country % 0.13 0.02 0.66 0.08 1.33 0.16 2.66 0.31Quantity Processed 3rd Country % 0.11 0.01 0.56 0.07 1.11 0.13 2.23 0.26Source: Agra CEAS estimates.Note: 1 Standard Deviation.92
THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE VARIOUS SYSTEMS TO KEEP LAYING HENSTable 7.2: Increase in production costs (EU-25)Feed Units 1% SD 1 5% SD 10% SD 20% SDProducer Surplus Euro (millions) -22.69 0.48 -112.60 2.43 -223.01 5.14 -437.33 11.04Consumer Surplus Euro (millions) -3.57 0.52 -17.80 2.54 -35.45 5.11 -70.25 9.98Total Surplus Euro (millions) -26.27 0.04 -130.40 0.13 -258.46 0.27 -507.58 1.49Quantity Shell % 0.03 0.01 0.17 0.03 0.33 0.06 0.66 0.12Quantity Processed % -0.02 0.01 -0.11 0.02 -0.21 0.05 -0.43 0.10Quantity Alternative % -0.36 0.05 -1.80 0.24 -3.61 0.48 -7.21 0.97Price Shell % 0.03 0.01 0.15 0.03 0.31 0.06 0.62 0.11Price Processed % 0.03 0.00 0.13 0.02 0.27 0.05 0.54 0.10Price Alternative % 0.47 0.07 2.36 0.34 4.72 0.69 9.44 1.37Quantity Shell 3rd Country % 0.20 0.03 0.98 0.13 1.96 0.27 3.93 0.53Quantity Processed 3rd Country % 0.17 0.02 0.85 0.12 1.71 0.23 3.42 0.47Labour Units 1% SD 5% SD 10% SD 20% SDProducer Surplus Euro (millions) -4.55 0.08 -22.69 0.43 -45.29 0.87 -90.21 1.79Consumer Surplus Euro (millions) -0.71 0.09 -3.57 0.46 -7.13 0.93 -14.22 1.88Total Surplus Euro (millions) -5.26 0.01 -26.26 0.04 -52.42 0.07 -104.43 0.12Quantity Shell % 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.07 0.01 0.13 0.02Quantity Processed % 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.04 0.01 -0.08 0.02Quantity Alternative % -0.07 0.01 -0.36 0.04 -0.72 0.09 -1.44 0.17Price Shell % 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.12 0.02Price Processed % 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.05 0.01 0.11 0.02Price Alternative % 0.09 0.01 0.47 0.06 0.94 0.12 1.88 0.25Quantity Shell 3rd Country % 0.04 0.00 0.20 0.02 0.39 0.05 0.78 0.09Quantity Processed 3rd Country % 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.02 0.34 0.04 0.68 0.08Other Units 1% SD 5% SD 10% SD 20% SDProducer Surplus Euro (millions) -18.23 0.33 -90.59 1.68 -179.76 3.58 -353.99 7.48Consumer Surplus Euro (millions) -2.78 0.36 -13.88 1.77 -27.67 3.61 -54.86 6.95Total Surplus Euro (millions) -21.01 0.03 -104.47 0.10 -207.44 0.19 -408.84 0.89Quantity Shell % 0.03 0.00 0.13 0.02 0.26 0.05 0.52 0.09Quantity Processed % -0.02 0.00 -0.08 0.02 -0.17 0.04 -0.33 0.08Quantity Alternative % -0.28 0.03 -1.40 0.16 -2.81 0.33 -5.62 0.65Price Shell % 0.02 0.00 0.12 0.02 0.24 0.04 0.48 0.08Price Processed % 0.02 0.00 0.10 0.02 0.21 0.04 0.42 0.07Price Alternative % 0.37 0.05 1.84 0.24 3.68 0.48 7.34 0.94Quantity Shell 3rd Country % 0.15 0.02 0.77 0.09 1.53 0.18 3.06 0.36Quantity Processed 3rd Country % 0.13 0.02 0.67 0.08 1.33 0.16 2.67 0.32Source: Agra CEAS estimates.Note: 1 Standard Deviation.93
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Study on thesocio-economic implicat
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