2120 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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APPENDIX 2: THIRD COUNTRIESTable A2.41: Key production cost informationComponentPrice of cornPrice of soybeanRation at 81% corn, 19% soybean plus other ingredients at 5% value, millingand delivery at 10.6% value:PriceUS $150.00/tonneUS $170.20/tonneUS $140.71/tonneBased on the technical factors in Section A2.1.2.3 and the production cost estimates above, TableA2.42 summarises the variable costs of egg production in Euros per dozen eggs. The cost ofproduction in the organic system is cheaper than that in the free range system because more eggsare collected per bird per year as a result of different molting practices.Table A2.42: Variable (running) costs of production per 12 eggs (€)One-cycle Two-cycle Three-cycle Free range OrganicFeed cost 0.26 0.29 0.30 0.37 0.34Medication/vet. 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01Miscellaneous 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03Bird depreciation 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11Total variable cost 0.40 0.43 0.45 0.52 0.49Note: U.S. $ have been converted to € at US $1 = €1.192.Source: Agra CEAS calculations.The cost of egg production, as measured by USDA, has trended irregularly lower over the past 23years, as indicated in Figure A2.11 below. Given that all costs other than feed were held constantover most of this period (since 1984), the variability in cost reflects variability in the price of cornand soybean meal. It will be noted that the feed conversion ratio has moved substantially lower since1984. This has almost certainly resulted in an upward bias in USDA’s estimates and is one reasonthey abandoned the series within the past few weeks in favour of an index measure of feed costs.Between 2001 and 2003, University of California researchers conducted an independent analysis ofthe cost of producing eggs. This analysis used a standardised set of non-feed costs and estimatedfeed costs on a monthly basis for each of six producing regions within the U.S. The cost ofreplacement pullets was allowed to vary monthly, depending on the cost of feed. Feed conversionrates were seasonally adjusted.380
APPENDIX 2: THIRD COUNTRIES7060504030201001980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003Figure A2.11: Trend in cost of egg production in the U.S. 1980-2003 (€)Source: USDA ERSOn the basis of this analysis, the average national cost of production for 2001/02 was estimated at41.3¢/dozen. This compares to USDA’s average estimate of 43.8¢/dozen for the same period.Regionally, the average cost was estimated to range from a low of 38.8¢/dozen in the West NorthCentral region (Minneapolis/Kansas City feed delivery points) to a high of 44.7¢/dozen in the West(Los Angeles/San Francisco).Another basis of comparison are the publicly released operating results of Cal-Maine Foods, Inc., theleading producer of eggs in the U.S. In the firm’s 2003 Annual Report to Shareholders, (June 2002-May 2003), feed costs are reported to have ranged from 54% to 56% of the total cost of eggproduction over the period 1999 to 2003 with feed cost in 2003 reported to have been 21.3¢/dozeneggs sold. This indicates a total cost of 38.0¢/dozen to 39.4¢/dozen in 2003. The total cost of salesthat year, as reported by Cal-Maine, was 55.2¢/dozen while the average reported selling price was64.5¢/dozen. These results are generally consistent with those reported above. Given Cal-Maine’ssize and degree of integration, its per unit cost of production should be among the lowest in theindustry.A recent study of egg production by economists at Iowa State University developed cost ofproduction estimates for different production regions of the U.S. and under alternative feed costassumptions. For reasons that aren’t clear, the Iowa State total cost estimates are about 25% belowthose derived by the University of California for the same production regions. Discussions with thelead researcher at Iowa State suggest that their analysis probably excluded some overhead costs thataccount for at least part of the difference.381
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