2120 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

APPENDIX 2: THIRD COUNTRIESTable A2.55 below indicates the egg output is utilised. While an estimated 36% of sales in 2003(mainly from backyard production) went through open markets there was a sharp shift in distributionchannels from 2001 to 2003. The share of open markets shrank by 14% and the share of wholesalersand supermarkets has doubled in the last three years. Since 2000 wholesale prices for commerciallyproduced eggs have averaged US $ 0.50 per dozen.Table A2.55: Table egg distribution channels 2001-2003Year Open markets Wholesalers &retailersInstitutionsincl. processorsFood service 1Barter2001 50% 29% 10% 7% 4%2002 42% 50% 1% 5% 2%2003 36% 60% - 3% 1%Note: 1 includes salary payments in the form of goods.Source: State Committee on Statistics.A2.5.4. Outlook for sectorTwo principal factors are likely to affect the outlook for production in the Ukraine. The first wouldbe that there is likely to be upward pressure on non- feed costs, particularly labour, as the economygrows. Current (2003, ILO data) average monthly wages amount to US $86.73 and these are forecastto rise to US $166.80 (EIU Country Forecast). In real terms this represents an increase of one-thirdover the period. Conversely Western investment in the sector is likely to improve productivity. Thekey factor affecting production costs will be grain costs and the outlook for these will be as muchdependent on world market factors as domestic developments in the Ukraine. Given that in realterms world market grain prices are not expected to rise significantly in the medium term this islikely to mean that production costs in the Ukraine will also remain relatively stable.398