2120 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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APPENDIX 1: MEMBER STATE REPORTS160.00140.00Average of large and medium egg price (€/100kg)120.00100.0080.0060.0040.0020.000.001991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003UKEUFigure A1.88: Evolution of egg prices 1991-2003Source: DG Agri.20%15%Percentage difference from EU average10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003Figure A1.89: Difference between UK and EU egg prices 1991-2003Source: DG Agri.A1.15.4.3. Demand and supply elasticities328
APPENDIX 1: MEMBER STATE REPORTSWhilst there has been some work on egg elasticity in the UK, none is particularly recent. Theindustry considers egg as a staple product and therefore expects demand to be inelastic.Unpublished research carried out by the RSPCA suggests that there is a great deal of volatility in theretail prices charged for eggs from all systems and, given steady demand, the implication from this isthat consumers are not altering their purchasing patterns as a result. They may, however, movebetween eggs produced from different systems as the price gap gets larger and smaller.A1.15.5. The impact of Directive 1999/74/ECA1.15.5.1. Implementation to dateThere are some enriched cage systems in use commercially (totalling just under 100,000 laying hens),some trial sites and around 1.5 million enrichable hen places. However, the commercial systemsresult from delays in planning approval meaning that scheduled (traditional cage) investment had toconform to enriched cage standards rather than a deliberate policy of early introduction. However,some of the later investment before January 2003 was in cages which can be adapted to conform toenriched cage standards. The industry generally feels that the Directive is unlikely to beimplemented by 2012, mainly because the timing of this review gives a lead time from 2005 to 2012,i.e. six years rather than the period 1999 to 2012 intended. Producers are unwilling to invest beforethey are certain that the <strong>final</strong> form of the Directive is known.A1.15.5.2. Expected implementationInvestment in enriched cages is not expected to take place until a) it is clear that it will have to (i.e.there is a wait and see policy at least until the outcome of the 2005 review is known); b) it is clearwhat form of investment will be needed; and, c) the maximum use has been made of existing facilities.The industry would like to see an increase in the usable life of existing caged facilities past 2012, sothat investment does not need to be brought forward. However, if the Directive is to beimplemented as scheduled, then producers have indicated that some would switch into enrichedcages as close to 2012 as possible, but some would close down rather than reinvest leading to apossible shortfall in UK egg supply.A1.15.5.3. Impact on the industryThe cost of compliance with the Directive is estimated by the government in its Regulatory ImpactAssessment to be around €247,758 150 ) for holdings with 12,000 birds, €2,062,176 for those with100,000 birds and €8,263,541 for large holdings with 400,000 birds. These costs equate to a totalnet present value 151 of €606.78 million from 2000 to 2011, €68.24 million per year from 2000 intoperpetuity 152 , 153 .150 £ = €1.48358151 Including capital/investment and running costs and discounted at 6%.152 Broader estimates of the impact of animal welfare improvements are also contained in Bennett, R.M. and R.J.P. Blaney (2003). Estimatingthe Benefits of Farm Animal Welfare Legislation Using the Contingent Valuation Method, Agricultural Economics, 29: 85-98.153 Assumptions used in these calculations include a large switch into free-range production not envisaged by the industry. Caution shouldbe exercised when using these figures.329
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