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Air quality expert group - Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in ... - Defra

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<strong>PM2.5</strong> emissions and receptor modell<strong>in</strong>g<br />

41. Emissions of these pollutants occur to vary<strong>in</strong>g degrees from stationary and<br />

mobile combustion, <strong>in</strong>dustrial processes and agricultural sources. Many of the<br />

European regulations and national legislation that control direct emissions of<br />

PM also control emissions of these precursors, although the abatement options<br />

are different for each pollutant. The Large Combustion Plants Directive and<br />

IPPC Directive apply to NOx and SO2, while SO2 emissions are also <strong>in</strong>fluenced by<br />

the Sulphur <strong>in</strong> Liquid Fuels Directive (1999/32/EC). Vehicle emission directives<br />

limit emissions of NOx and NMVOCs from vehicle exhausts, though there is<br />

evidence to suggest that these directives have not been effective <strong>in</strong> reduc<strong>in</strong>g<br />

“real world” NOx emissions from modern diesel vehicles manufactured to<br />

meet Euro III-V standards (Carslaw et al., 2011). The Fuel Quality Directive<br />

(2009/30/EC) limits the volatility and sulphur content of transport fuels. The<br />

Solvent Emissions Directive (1999/13/EC) limits emissions of NMVOCs due to<br />

the use of organic solvents <strong>in</strong> certa<strong>in</strong> activities and <strong>in</strong>stallations. Emissions from<br />

shipp<strong>in</strong>g are controlled under the International Convention for the Prevention<br />

of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL), which sets limits on the sulphur content of<br />

mar<strong>in</strong>e fuels and NOx emissions from new eng<strong>in</strong>es. More str<strong>in</strong>gent standards<br />

are now controll<strong>in</strong>g emissions from new aircraft eng<strong>in</strong>es. Further <strong>in</strong>formation on<br />

legislation and abatement options for these pollutants can be found <strong>in</strong> previous<br />

AQEG reports 9 and SNIFFER (2010).<br />

42. Figure 4.6 shows the UK emissions of NOx, SO2, NMVOCs and NH3 from 1990-<br />

2020. The figures are taken from the latest version of the NAEI, cover<strong>in</strong>g the<br />

years up to 2009 (Passant et al., 2011), and projections up to 2020 based<br />

on DECC’s UEP38 energy projections. Figure 4.6 also shows how precursor<br />

emissions <strong>in</strong> the UK have fallen by vary<strong>in</strong>g amounts over the period from 1990-<br />

2009, partly due to the vary<strong>in</strong>g contributions made by different sectors to<br />

each pollutant. Emissions of NOx have fallen by 59% s<strong>in</strong>ce 1990 due ma<strong>in</strong>ly<br />

to reductions from road transport and combustion for power generation.<br />

Estimations are on the basis of the current vehicle emission factors used <strong>in</strong> the<br />

NAEI which have been brought <strong>in</strong>to question. The NAEI is currently switch<strong>in</strong>g<br />

to a new set of emission factors that are more <strong>in</strong> l<strong>in</strong>e with up-to-date evidence<br />

on the efficiency of recent and current Euro standards for diesel vehicles.<br />

When implementation is completed, this is likely to lead to a reduction <strong>in</strong><br />

the estimated rate of decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> UK NOx emissions over recent years. NMVOC<br />

emissions have fallen by 70% s<strong>in</strong>ce 1990, ma<strong>in</strong>ly due to reductions from road<br />

transport. SO2 emissions have fallen by 89% s<strong>in</strong>ce 1990, almost entirely due<br />

to reductions <strong>in</strong> combustion emissions from the power generat<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>dustry.<br />

Emissions of NH3 are dom<strong>in</strong>ated by agricultural sources and have only decl<strong>in</strong>ed<br />

by 21% s<strong>in</strong>ce 1990.<br />

43. As well as show<strong>in</strong>g different trends over time because of differences <strong>in</strong> source<br />

contributions, the <strong>PM2.5</strong> precursor emissions also exhibit different spatial<br />

patterns, as shown <strong>in</strong> Figure 4.7, for example, where NOx emissions are<br />

dom<strong>in</strong>ant <strong>in</strong> major urban areas, and NH3 emissions occur predom<strong>in</strong>antly <strong>in</strong> more<br />

rural areas of England. The contribution of different UK precursor emissions to<br />

ambient <strong>PM2.5</strong> therefore varies spatially as well as hav<strong>in</strong>g varied over time due to<br />

the different trends <strong>in</strong> emissions of each precursor gas.<br />

9 See http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/<strong>quality</strong>/air/air-<strong>quality</strong>/committees/aqeg/publish/.<br />

93

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