Air quality expert group - Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in ... - Defra

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precursors, the changes between 2005 and 2010 have been similar to those for the UK. The predicted changes in emissions between 2010 and 2020 for EU-27 are also similar to those predicted for the UK for NOx, SO2 and NH3, although rather larger reductions are predicted for NMVOC emissions in EU-27 compared with the UK. Different changes in emissions would be expected where the contributions of different sources to precursor emissions vary between countries, but caution should also be taken when making comparisons because different emission factors may have been used in the inventories compiled for the UK and EU-27 countries. 21. Emissions from shipping are not well quantified. Emissions of SO2 from shipping in Europe are predicted to decrease by just 3% in the next decade, although SO2 emissions in Sulphur Emission Control Areas around the UK coast are expected to fall significantly. NOx emissions from shipping in Europe are predicted to increase by 16% over the next decade. 22. Comparisons between the results of receptor and dispersion models have highlighted significant differences in relation to industrial/commercial/residential emissions of primary particles and the model predictions of secondary organic aerosol particles. Receptor modelling results highlight the weaknesses in current knowledge of a number of sources including wood smoke and cooking aerosol, and also suggest that the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) emission factors for gas combustion may be rather high. 23. Use of carbon-14 as a tracer allows a distinction to be drawn between carbon derived from contemporary sources, such as wood burning or emissions from vegetation, and from fossil fuel sources. Analysis of carbon-14 in airborne particulate matter collected in Birmingham indicates a major contribution to secondary organic carbon from biogenic precursors. 24. Formulation of abatement strategies is made difficult by inadequacies in knowledge of the contribution of certain sources and weaknesses in understanding precursor–secondary particle dependencies for the major secondary components. I.3.1 Emissions and receptor modelling recommendations 25. AQEG recommends that the enhancement of emissions inventories is essential if numerical models of atmospheric PM2.5 are to be improved. The key areas for improvement are: • non-exhaust vehicle emissions including tyre and brake wear, road abrasion and road dust resuspension; • fugitive dust emissions from construction, demolition, quarrying, mineral handling, industrial and agricultural processes, and methods for quantifying them nationally and locally; • PM2.5 emissions from domestic and commercial cooking; • PM2.5 emissions from small-scale waste burning and bonfires; Executive Summary 5
PM2.5 in the UK 6 • PM2.5 emissions from domestic wood burning, accounting for the effectiveness of control measures; • biogenic emissions of NMVOCs; • emissions of NH3 from agriculture, with their temporal as well as spatial variability; • exhaust emissions from off-road machinery used in construction and industry; • emissions of SO2 and NOx from shipping, in particular their spatial distribution around ports and harbours, the temporal variability and future emissions; and • exhaust emissions of PM2.5 from diesel vehicles under real world driving conditions and the factors and technologies affecting them. 26. Inventories should be developed to provide a quantification of the spatial and temporal variability in emissions of primary PM2.5 and its precursors from all contributing sources, including those not covered in national inventories, or provide the means for calculating them in air quality models. Developments should include spatially-gridded inventories with high resolution temporal profiles for different source sectors. 27. Further urgent research on the emissions and atmospheric chemistry of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the context of secondary organic aerosol formation in the UK is required, as this may have significant impact on the options for mitigation measures. Examples of critical areas have been recently evaluated. 1 I.4 Modelling and the future 28. Models are an important tool for understanding the links between emissions and observations data and making predictions of ambient concentrations in a self-consistent framework. Modelling of PM2.5 remains a substantial challenge owing to uncertainties in and lack of measured data, uncertainties/ lack of understanding of some aspects of the dynamic, physical and chemical processes which need to be described within the models, and uncertainties in the emission data and their projections. 29. Several PM models covering urban to regional scales are used to predict UK air quality. They are based on a range of modelling systems (e.g. Eulerian, Lagrangian and Gaussian plume). Models are useful for quantifying the different contributions to PM, e.g. local urban emissions, and the contribution made by the long-range transport of pollutants. 30. Modelling results have shown that PM2.5 concentrations exhibit localised peaks in urban areas, owing to local sources of primary PM2.5, superimposed on a regional background. These local sources are generally well represented by models, except when close to roads with complex street geometries. An 1 EPRI and A&WMA Workshop on Future Air Quality Model Development Needs, 12-13 September 2011, Washington, D.C., USA.
Page 1 and 2: AIR QUALITY EXPERT GROUP Fine Parti
Page 3 and 4: This is a report from the Air Quali
Page 5 and 6: II Membership Chair Professor Paul
Page 7 and 8: IV Acknowledgements The Air Quality
Page 9 and 10: VI 2.5 Summary 39 2.5.1 What does t
Page 11 and 12: VIII 5.4 Components of PM2.5 and so
Page 13 and 14: PM2.5 in the UK 2 Air Quality Direc
Page 15: PM2.5 in the UK 4 I.2.1 Concentrati
Page 19 and 20: PM2.5 in the UK 8 I.4.1 Modelling r
Page 21 and 22: PM2.5 in the UK 10 4. In broad term
Page 23 and 24: PM2.5 in the UK Table 1.2: National
Page 25 and 26: PM2.5 in the UK 14 17. Dry depositi
Page 27 and 28: PM2.5 in the UK 16 in ozone in the
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Page 31 and 32: PM2.5 in the UK 20 5. The exact for
Page 33 and 34: PM2.5 in the UK 22 12. These diffic
Page 35 and 36: PM2.5 in the UK 24 2.3 Methods used
Page 37 and 38: PM2.5 in the UK 26 (e) During the
Page 39 and 40: PM2.5 in the UK 28 2.3.3 The Partis
Page 41 and 42: PM2.5 in the UK 30 35. For non-auto
Page 43 and 44: PM2.5 in the UK 32 43. Ratification
Page 45 and 46: PM2.5 in the UK 34 49. Many of the
Page 47 and 48: PM2.5 in the UK 36 57. Black carbon
Page 49 and 50: PM2.5 in the UK 38 2.4.4 PM2.5 elem
Page 51 and 52: PM2.5 in the UK 40 average of 93.6%
Page 53 and 54: PM2.5 in the UK Annex 1 - PM2.5 mon
Page 55 and 56: PM2.5 in the UK 44
Page 57 and 58: PM2.5 in the UK 46 3.2.1 Diurnal va
Page 59 and 60: PM2.5 in the UK 48 PM2.5/µgm -3 20
Page 61 and 62: PM2.5 in the UK 50 3.2.4 Seasonal v
Page 63 and 64: PM2.5 in the UK 52 12. Results are
Page 65 and 66: PM2.5 in the UK 54 3.4.2 Relationsh
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PM2.5 in the UK 56 Correlation 0.8
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PM2.5 in the UK Figure 3.11: Polar
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PM2.5 in the UK 60 south. Further a
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PM2.5 in the UK 62 3.7 PM2.5 episod
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PM2.5 in the UK 64 secondary ammoni
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PM2.5 in the UK 66 3.8 PM2.5 concen
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PM2.5 in the UK 68 3.9 Composition
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PM2.5 in the UK 70 43. The UK has i
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PM2.5 in the UK 72 NO 3 6 4 2 2000
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PM2.5 in the UK 74 54. PM ammonium
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PM2.5 in the UK 76 58. Data from th
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PM2.5 in the UK 78 (k) Road traffic
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PM2.5 in the UK 80 provided by spec
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PM2.5 in the UK 82 14. The London L
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PM2.5 in the UK Table 4.1: UK emiss
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PM2.5 in the UK 86 24. National inv
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PM2.5 in the UK 88 Figure 4.5: Spat
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PM2.5 in the UK 90 either nanoparti
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PM2.5 in the UK 92 37. Further cons
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PM2.5 in the UK Emissions (ktonnes)
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PM2.5 in the UK 96 Figure 4.7: Spat
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PM2.5 in the UK 98 4.4 A critical a
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PM2.5 in the UK 100 60. At a local
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PM2.5 in the UK 102 measurements an
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PM2.5 in the UK 104 4.5.2 Quantifyi
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PM2.5 in the UK 106 77. Early effor
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PM2.5 in the UK 108 4.6.1 Receptor
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PM2.5 in the UK 110 is predicated o
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PM2.5 in the UK 112 PM2.5 contribut
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PM2.5 in the UK 114 inorganic parti
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PM2.5 in the UK 116 93. While there
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PM2.5 in the UK 118 100% 90% 80% 70
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PM2.5 in the UK 120 105. Receptor m
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PM2.5 in the UK 122
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PM2.5 in the UK 124 5. At the regio
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PM2.5 in the UK 126 15. Some of the
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PM2.5 in the UK 128 Figure 5.2: Tot
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PM2.5 in the UK 130 µgm -3 160 140
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PM2.5 in the UK 132 PM component (
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PM2.5 in the UK 134 with larger dev
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PM2.5 in the UK 136 Figure 5.8: UKI
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PM2.5 in the UK Figure 5.9: Compari
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PM2.5 in the UK 140 PM2.5 concentra
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PM2.5 in the UK 142 the North Sea (
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PM2.5 in the UK 144 53. Modelling r
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PM2.5 in the UK Annex 2: PM modelli
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PM2.5 in the UK 148 2. Figure A2.1.
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PM2.5 in the UK 150 6. The non-line
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PM2.5 in the UK 152 Model 50 45 40
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PM2.5 in the UK 154 (a) (b) modPM 2
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PM2.5 in the UK 156 NO3 - concentra
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PM2.5 in the UK 158 26. This was in
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PM2.5 in the UK 160 SIA components
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PM2.5 in the UK 162 x 50 km grid fo
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PM2.5 in the UK 164 A2.6: Photochem
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PM2.5 in the UK 166 PM2.5 Emission
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PM2.5 in the UK 168 A2.8: PCM PM mo
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PM2.5 in the UK 170 illustrated by
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PM2.5 in the UK 172 trajectory mode
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PM2.5 in the UK 174
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PM2.5 in the UK 176 4. The delivery
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PM2.5 in the UK 178 12. With respec
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PM2.5 in the UK 180
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PM2.5 in the UK Chapter 2: Measurin
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PM2.5 in the UK RoTAP (2012). Revie
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PM2.5 in the UK Harrison R.M. and Y
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PM2.5 in the UK Chapter 5 Modelling
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PM2.5 in the UK Jones A.M., Harriso
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PB13837 Nobel House 17 Smith Square
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