Air quality expert group - Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in ... - Defra

PM2.5 emissions and receptor modelling
46. Emissions of precursor emissions from sources in Europe make an important
contribution to secondary inorganic and organic components of PM2.5 in the
UK. Table 4.3 shows the emissions of NOx, SO2, NMVOCs and NH3 from the
EU-27 countries between 2005 and 2020. These are taken from the baseline
emissions scenario from IIASA’s GAINS model used for the Negotiations on the
Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol under CLRTAP (Amann et al, 2011).
Table 4.3: EU-27 emissions of PM2.5 precursor gases: NOx, SO2, NMVOCs and NH3.
ktonnes 2005 2010 2015 2020 % decrease from 2010 to 2020
SO2 8055 3911 3090 2735 30%
NOx 11158 8524 7175 5553 35%
NH3 3855 3753 3709 3667 2%
NMVOCs 9161 7379 6492 5989 19%
47. According to the figures in Table 4.3, the changes in EU-27 precursor emissions
between 2005 and 2010 are similar to those for the UK. The predicted changes
in emissions between 2010 and 2020 for EU-27 shown in Table 4.3 are also
similar to those predicted for the UK (Figure 4.6) for NOx, SO2 and NH3,
although rather larger reductions are predicted for NMVOC emissions in EU-27
than in the UK.
48. Shipping activities around European waters also make a significant contribution
to PM precursor emissions, especially to NOx and SO2. Table 4.4 shows total
emissions from shipping in the North Sea and North-East Atlantic sea territories;
these figures are also provided by IIASA and used in the UKIAM (see Chapter
5). The figures illustrate how NOx and NMVOC emissions from shipping are
predicted to grow as emissions from other sources decline. Emissions of SO2
are expected to fall slightly, due mainly to the reduction in the sulphur content
of marine fuels. Considering only the North Sea region, which is designated
a Sulphur Emissions Control Area (SECA), the reductions in SO2 emissions
are expected to be much greater, i.e. around 88% between 2010 and 2020.
Without further abatement, emissions from shipping will become a dominant
source of PM2.5 precursor emissions in Europe.
Table 4.4: Emissions of PM2.5 precursor gases from shipping in European waters: NOx, SO2
and NMVOCs.
ktonnes 2005 2010 2015 2020 % decrease from 2010 to 2020
SO2 1060 1060 735 832 3%
NOx 1510 1510 1792 1929 -16%
NMVOCs 57 57 83 101 -47%
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