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Air quality expert group - Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in ... - Defra

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<strong>PM2.5</strong> emissions and receptor modell<strong>in</strong>g<br />

25. Figures 4.1 and 4.2 showed the latest UK emission projections for <strong>PM2.5</strong> to<br />

2020. Future emissions of <strong>PM2.5</strong> are predicted to fall by nearly 17 ktonnes by<br />

2020, a decrease of 25% relative to 2009 levels. Most of this decrease<br />

(10 ktonnes) is due to a reduction <strong>in</strong> exhaust emissions from road transport<br />

due to the cont<strong>in</strong>ued fleet penetration of vehicles meet<strong>in</strong>g tighter emission<br />

standards. Emissions from off-road transport are expected to fall by 5 ktonnes,<br />

the next largest contributor to overall UK emission reductions. Figure 4.2<br />

illustrates how much more important the non-exhaust components of traffic<br />

emissions will become by 2020. Unless measures are taken to reduce these<br />

emissions, and tak<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>to account the predicted decrease <strong>in</strong> exhaust emissions,<br />

the contribution made by non-exhaust traffic emissions (tyre and brake wear,<br />

and road abrasion) will <strong>in</strong>crease from 38% of all road transport emissions <strong>in</strong><br />

2009 to 81% <strong>in</strong> 2020. This is based on current assumptions about the fraction<br />

of PM emitted from non-exhaust traffic sources as <strong>PM2.5</strong>, but there is doubt, as<br />

discussed later <strong>in</strong> this section, as to whether any of the tyre wear PM mass is<br />

emitted <strong>in</strong> the <strong>PM2.5</strong> fraction. If this is the case, then the contribution from the<br />

rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g non-exhaust <strong>PM2.5</strong> emissions (brake wear and road abrasion) to total<br />

traffic <strong>PM2.5</strong> emissions will be 27% <strong>in</strong> 2009 ris<strong>in</strong>g to 71% <strong>in</strong> 2020. This clearly<br />

emphasises the need to <strong>in</strong>troduce measures to control emissions from<br />

these non-exhaust traffic sources.<br />

Emissions (ktonnes)<br />

2500<br />

2000<br />

1500<br />

1000<br />

500<br />

0<br />

1990<br />

1991<br />

1992<br />

1993<br />

1994<br />

1995<br />

1996<br />

1997<br />

Total EU-27 <strong>PM2.5</strong> Emissions (kt), 1990-2008<br />

1998<br />

1999<br />

2000<br />

2001<br />

2002<br />

2003<br />

2004<br />

2005<br />

2006<br />

2007<br />

2008<br />

Other (Non-Combustion)<br />

Other (Combustion)<br />

Small Scale Waste Burn<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Agriculture<br />

Iron and steel production<br />

Other M<strong>in</strong>eral products<br />

Quarry<strong>in</strong>g and M<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g of M<strong>in</strong>erals Other Than Coal<br />

Residential<br />

Off Road Transport<br />

Other Transport (<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g Rail, National Navigation<br />

and Aviation LTO)<br />

Road Transport (Non-Exhaust)<br />

Road Transport (Exhaust)<br />

Combustion <strong>in</strong> Industry<br />

Figure 4.4: Total EU-27 <strong>PM2.5</strong> emissions (ktonnes), 1990-2008.<br />

Combustion <strong>in</strong> the Energy Industries<br />

87

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