Travel in London Travel in London

Overview
• This shift in net mode share is also happening faster than that foreseen by the
MTS, although data for the most recent two years suggests a return to growth in
levels of road traffic, albeit that the net car mode share continues to decrease
as public transport and cycling are growing faster.
Strong growth is expected to continue for at least the next two decades; therefore
developing plans to accommodate this growth and maintain and support London’s
economic success will continue to be a major preoccupation for Transport for
London (TfL).
• London’s future growth is expected to be of the order of six new residents every
hour, or two Tube trains’ worth of people per week, reaching a population of
10.4 million by 2041 – the equivalent of adding both Birmingham and Glasgow
to London between now and then.
• This means more trips – a total of 5.5 million more trips per day in 2041
compared to 2014 if current average trip rates remain unchanged.
The composition of London’s population is also expected to change, altering the
emphasis of future demand pressures on the transport networks.
• Much of this future growth will be focused on London’s Opportunity and
Growth Areas, which will feature dense, mixed-use developments with high
public transport connectivity – particularly to the east of London.
• Set against this however London’s population will feature more older people,
whose travel behaviour will emphasise specific types of demand. The proportion
of older people in outer London is expected to grow significantly, bringing
challenges in terms of public transport connectivity and possibly increased car
use.
The overall picture of stronger than expected growth in population and travel
demand has affected the various travel modes in different ways. There has been
strong growth on the core public transport networks, but road traffic volumes
have declined.
• On the London Underground (LU), usage growth has been consistently strong
for many years. There was an aggregate 19.8 per cent growth in Underground
journey stages between 2008/09 and 2014/15 – equivalent to 3.1 per cent per
year on average, and a net 25.5 per cent growth in passenger kilometres
travelled. As well as population and employment growth, this has also reflected
the Tube upgrade programme, which has significantly increased capacity on
several Underground lines.
• Following very strong growth in the early years of the last decade, the upward
trend in bus patronage has levelled off in recent years, at least in part reflecting
a similar trend in service supply. Between 2008/09 and 2014/15 bus passenger
stages grew by 6.2 per cent, equivalent to one per cent per year, and bus
passenger kilometres grew by 6.0 per cent. Nevertheless, bus patronage in
terms of passenger kilometres in 2014/15 stood at 78.8 per cent higher than the
start of the century in 2000/01. About half of all bus journeys in England are
now made in London.
• On the TfL Rail modes the period since 2008 has also been marked by strong
growth, reflecting substantial capacity enhancements that have been made to
these networks. On the Docklands Light Railway (DLR) there was a net increase
8 Travel in London, Report 8