Travel in London Travel in London

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9. London’s air quality and greenhouse gas emissions and transport and public health The 4th UK Carbon budget (2023-27) is 1,950 MtCO 2 e, which is 50 per cent reduction by 2025 over 1990 baseline. The CMMES target of 60 per cent is higher than this, which is indented to represent the Mayor’s commitment to London leading the way. Only forward projections for the transport sector part of CCMES target are available. Based on a business-as-usual scenario a 36.4 per cent reduction in transport emissions is forecast for 2025 compared to 1990 levels. In terms of future policies, projections such as these demand a revised approach, based around a more fundamental approach to reducing transport CO 2 . This might include increased emphasis on measures such as: • Developments that minimise transport emissions and the need or desire to travel. • Transforming the way in which existing areas operate, for example through Low Emission Neighbourhoods. • Maximising climate change mitigation being a core consideration of transport and spatial planning decisions. • Increase in the rate of transition to low carbon and renewable sources of transport energy for both road and rail based transport. • Increase in transport energy efficiency and the proportion of trips made by more sustainable modes, such as walking and cycling. Ultimately, meeting CO 2 reduction targets point to a need for a step change in the way Londoners live and how London itself, for example through its transport system, enables them to live more sustainable lives built around a circular and shared economy. 170 Travel in London, Report 8
9. London’s air quality and greenhouse gas emissions and transport and public health Figure 9.4 Progress towards CO 2 reduction targets – emissions from ground-based transport in London. Annual CO 2 emissions (Mt) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 CO 2 per capita (t) 0 1990 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Road Transport Aviation Shipping National Rail London Underground Croydon Tramlink, London Overground and DLR Crossrail CO2 per capita (T) 0 Source: TfL Planning Strategic Analysis. 9.5 Emissions of CO2, PM10 and NOx from ground-based transport in London Introduction This section provides provisional updated estimates of the trends in key greenhouse gas and local air quality pollutants from ground-based transport in London between 2008 and 2013. The data reflect early results from TfL’s update to the London Atmospheric Emissions Inventories, which is currently nearing completion. The data in this section are therefore presented on a provisional basis. Full details of the updated inventories will be published during 2016, and the data made available to air quality practitioners. What is the LAEI? The LAEI provides estimates of the annual emissions of a wide variety of pollutants including NO x , PM 10 and CO 2 , from many different sources within London. These sources include ground-based transport (road transport, shipping, rail and aviation), along with other emissions from domestic and commercial gas use, industrial sources, and Non-Road Mobile Machinery (NRMM) related to construction activities. The LAEI2013 provides Excel and GIS files of emissions over grids, which represent the GLA and areas roughly within the M25. The emissions for the years 2008, 2010, 2013, 2020, 2025 and 2030 are included. Emissions from each source can be 171 Travel in London, Report 8
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