Travel in London Travel in London

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9. London’s air quality and greenhouse gas emissions and transport and public health developing London specific emissions factors with the aim of reflecting London urban driving cycles more accurately. Once these are developed TfL will undertake sensitivity testing to understand the implications for London’s air quality concentrations projections. Trend in emissions between 2008 and 2013 Figure 9.6 shows the trend, as an index, in emissions of CO 2 , PM 10 and NO x from ground-based transport in London. Ground-based transport includes: • Aviation (includes aircraft emissions from landing and take-off cycle up to 1000m). • Shipping – both passenger and freight. • Rail - freight and National Rail passenger (both diesel and electric), TfL rail, Overground, Underground, DLR and Tram. • Road transport; exhaust emissions from cars, vans and minibuses, lorries and buses etc. Figure 9.6 Emissions of key air pollutants from ground-based transport in London, 2008-2013. Index 2008=100. 100% LAEI Grond Based Transport Emissions relative to 2008 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% Provisional Data 50% 2008 2010 2013 NOx PM10 CO2 Source: TfL Planning, Strategic Analysis. In terms of change between 2008 and 2013, and on a provisional basis at this stage: • For CO 2 overall emissions from ground-based transport have reduced by 10 per cent. • For PM 10 overall emissions from ground-based transport have reduced by 15 per cent. 174 Travel in London, Report 8
9. London’s air quality and greenhouse gas emissions and transport and public health • For NO x overall emissions from ground-based transport have reduced by 21 per cent. • The provisional data from the LAEI 2013 inventory for years 2008 to 2013 are broadly in line with the previous inventory whereby between 2008 and 2012 [discuss] ground based transport emissions were expected to reduce by 21 per cent for NO x , 13 per cent for PM 10 and 7 per cent for CO 2 (excluding electric rail). 9.6 Climate change adaptation and mitigation The scale of the challenge In collaboration with the GLA and as part of the Mayor’s Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (2011), TfL has assessed and evaluated the risks from extreme weather today and from future climate impacts on its assets and services. TfL has identified that the key risks in the 2050s are likely to be: • Higher summer temperatures, with the average summer days being 2.7°C warmer and very hot days 6.5°C warmer than the baseline average • Warmer winters – winters will be warmer with the average winter day being 2.2°C warmer and a very warm winter day 3.5°C above the baseline. • More seasonal rainfall – summers will be drier, with the average summer 19 per cent drier and the driest summer 39 per cent drier than the baseline average • Wetter winters – the average winter 15 will be per cent wetter and the wettest winter 33 per cent wetter than the baseline average • Sea level rise – sea levels are projected to rise by up to 96 centimetres by the end of the century. Current weather-related risks are more likely to include winter ice, rainfall and shorter periods of summer heat. These can occur throughout London and we have assessed known ‘hotspot’ locations for the different risks in all our businesses. In the short to medium term for flooding and high temperatures there is likely to be increased frequency and consequence, for example flooding from increased frequency and intensity of winter storms. High temperatures are more likely to become common in the summer months from the mid-21st century. In most cases, the longer term risks will be similar. For flooding and high temperatures there is likely to be increased frequency and consequence e.g. flooding from increased frequency and intensity of winter storms. High temperatures are more likely to become common in the summer months from the mid-21st century. The temperatures reached in the hot summer of 2003 are likely to feel average by the 2040’s and cool by the 2080’s. For low temperature snow and ice events, there is likely to be increased severity when such events occur, although they may not be as frequent. Assessing the risk TfL analyses extreme weather and other risks to its assets and services as part of its corporate approach to risk assessment. Each business area uses a scoring methodology based on this approach, and risk maps have been generated for each key business area. 175 Travel in London, Report 8
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