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12. Spotlight: The transport challenge of London’s future growth
Interim update to projections of London’s employment
In July 2015 the GLA published updated interim trend-based employment
projections to 2036 (Working Paper 67: Updated employment projections for
London, GLA Economics). These new projections used the latest employment data
for 2014 as a new base for the projections and therefore took account of the strong
growth in jobs between 2011 and 2014. Therefore the starting point for the new
projections was over 600,000 higher than the previous projections and this scale of
uplift was carried through to the forecasts with an additional 628,000 jobs
projected for 2036. The GLA will continue to review the projections, and will refine
them by taking account of site capacity and transport accessibility.
London’s labour market balance
Jobs in London are taken up by London residents and by in-commuters from the
areas around London. In turn, some London residents travel to jobs outside Greater
London. It was estimated that, in 2011, about 800,000 people commuted into
London on an average day from areas outside. Out-commuting was much less, at
an estimated 350,000 people per day. The remaining 3.7 million workplace jobs in
London were filled by those who also lived in London.
Relative changes in these components to 2031 will also affect future travel patterns
in London, although the overall pattern is expected to remain similar to the present
(figure 12.17). In-commuting is expected to increase in proportion to employment
growth, with 900,000 in-commuters expected daily in 2031 (an increase of 17 per
cent over 2011). Although the major share of new jobs will be taken up by London
residents, it is clear that longer-distance commuting will continue to present
capacity challenges that extend beyond the GLA area and particularly affect the
National Rail network.
Figure 12.17
London’s changing labour market balance.
Source: GLA.
268 Travel in London, Report 8