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12. Spotlight: The transport challenge of <strong>London</strong>’s future growth<br />

Project<strong>in</strong>g forward however (figure 12.7), growth is expected to be much higher<br />

among those aged 65 and over, particularly from 2020. The number of <strong>London</strong><br />

residents aged 65 and over is expected to be 68 per cent higher <strong>in</strong> 2041 than <strong>in</strong><br />

2014 – a major shift that has significant implications for future transport provision<br />

<strong>in</strong> terms of factors such as total travel demand, mode share, and the times of day<br />

that people travel.<br />

People aged 65 and over have a lower overall trip rate, with an average of 2.2 trips<br />

per person per day compared to 2.6 for the rest of the population. Unsurpris<strong>in</strong>gly,<br />

they also have a very different journey purpose mix than that for work<strong>in</strong>g people<br />

(figure 12.8), with over 80 per cent of trips for leisure, shopp<strong>in</strong>g or personal<br />

bus<strong>in</strong>ess and, partly reflect<strong>in</strong>g this, have quite different patterns of trip mak<strong>in</strong>g<br />

across the day (figure 12.9), with 64 per cent of all trips be<strong>in</strong>g made <strong>in</strong> the <strong>in</strong>ter peak<br />

period, compared to 42 per cent for those under 65.<br />

Figure 12.8<br />

Journey purpose – people aged 65 years or more compared with those<br />

aged under 65 years, LTDS 2011/12 to 2013/14 average.<br />

60%<br />

Under 65 65+<br />

50%<br />

Purpose share<br />

40%<br />

30%<br />

20%<br />

10%<br />

0%<br />

Commut<strong>in</strong>g Other work Education Shopp<strong>in</strong>g/personal<br />

bus<strong>in</strong>ess<br />

Leisure<br />

Other<br />

Source: TfL Plann<strong>in</strong>g Strategic Analysis.<br />

<strong>Travel</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>London</strong>, Report 8 261

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