Travel in London Travel in London

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12. Spotlight: The transport challenge of London’s future growth Public transport demand has been growing rapidly over the past decade and TfL forecasts continued strong growth in rail and Underground demand, as shown in Figure 12.21, reflecting committed investment such as Crossrail and the Tube upgrades. Bus demand is expected to grow in line with population growth, which is lower than in the recent past and reflects planned investment, which is more moderate than the significant service increases in the 2000s. Figure 12.21 60% Demand growth by public transport mode. 50% Growth in journeys 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% All public transport Bus Underground (including DLR and Tramlink) Possible variation in journeys from low car scenario 2011 to 2031 growth in journeys from high car scenario Rail (including London Overground) Source: TfL Planning, Strategic Analysis. 12.5 Some key challenges arising from TfL’s demand projections Population is projected to grow across London, with particularly strong growth in east London and the Opportunity Areas, but also in less well connected areas of outer London. Differences in the composition of the population in different parts of London will have implications for future travel demand. The location of population growth and connectivity levels and improvements will play a significant role in the resultant mode share and particularly car use. The higher concentrations of employment growth are forecast to be located in central and inner areas of London, and will depend on high capacity radial public transport to carry workers from the rest of London and the surrounding region. Future connectivity improvements will play an important role in the viability of jobs and economic performance. The demand growth expected on public transport is very significant, particularly in inner and central London and links serving Growth and Opportunity Areas. The increase in population is also likely to lead to some growth in car use, particularly in outer London, although there is uncertainty about the scale of this growth. These growth pressures will lead to crowding and congestion challenges which will need to be addressed. 272 Travel in London, Report 8
12. Spotlight: The transport challenge of London’s future growth Walking is projected to grow in line with population change and cycling is expected to continue to grow strongly to meet the Mayor’s cycling target in 2026. This growth in cycling will also help mitigate some of the increase in public transport demand and crowding. Since the publication of the Further Alterations to the London Plan in March 2015, [see: https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/planning/london-plan/past-versionsand-alterations-london-plan/further-alterations-london] the GLA has produced an interim higher employment forecast which will put even more pressure on the transport system. The location of most of the new jobs in areas highly connected by public transport means that the impact will be focused particularly on public transport. Travel in London, Report 8 273
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