Travel in London Travel in London

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11. Spotlight: How has travel by Londoners changed – insights from 10 years of the London Travel Demand Survey (LTDS) 11.4 How has car use by Londoners changed over the past 10 years? Introduction The ‘peak car’ hypothesis proposes that volumes of car use per capita have reached a peak, and that the trend of growth in traffic will now reverse, leading to a sustained decline into the future. This could be either in absolute terms or, in the context of a rapidly growing city such as London, in relative terms, looking in this case at car use per capita. What does LTDS tell us about this in London? Traffic volumes and personal car travel In London traffic volumes in terms of vehicle-kilometres reached a peak in 1999 and have been observed to be declining almost every year since then, with the number of vehicle-kilometres travelled now around 10 per cent lower than it was in 2000. There has, however, been something of a turnaround in the very latest year – overall traffic volumes (all types of road traffic) in London increasing by 1.8 per cent. LTDS has been used to explore to what extent the trend of reducing road traffic since 1999 is apparent in London residents’ travel patterns. It should be noted that traffic volumes as recorded on the network relate to a wider realm of travel than that captured by LTDS, which enquires only about personal travel, and covers only London residents. This means that the trend in vehicle-kilometres on the network as a whole may differ from that suggested by LTDS, with the difference accounted for by, for example, travel in the course of work, freight traffic or travel by non- Londoners. Of the data collected through LTDS, that relating to car driver trips is of most relevance to the peak car question. Trips made as a car driver correspond one to one with a vehicle being driven on the network. While trips as a car passenger are also of interest in many contexts, these do not correspond to vehicle usage. On this basis, information relating to car driver trips is presented here to explore the extent to which observations made through LTDS are consistent with the peak car hypothesis. London residents’ car travel Over the 10 years of LTDS, car driver trip rates, distance travelled as a car driver, and time spent travelling as a car driver have all decreased by around 25 per cent (figure 11.8). Taking into account growth in London’s population of 14 per cent between 2005 and 2014, this means a net absolute reduction of 16 per cent in car travel by London residents. This is greater than the net reduction of approximately 8 per cent in the volume of car traffic (measured in vehicle-kilometres) in London between 2005 and 2014. The implication of this is that the trend relating to personal travel of London residents is more consistent with the peak car hypothesis than is the pattern relating to travel in London more generally. The trend of reducing car driver trip rates is evident for residents of both inner and outer London. This trend has seen an average annual reduction in car driver trip rates of about three per cent in both. Given the already higher car driver trip rates for residents of outer London, this percentage reduction represents a larger annual reduction in car driver trip rates in outer London in absolute terms (figure 11.9). 212 Travel in London, Report 8
11. Spotlight: How has travel by Londoners changed – insights from 10 years of the London Travel Demand Survey (LTDS) Figure 11.8 Indicators of car travel among London residents. 110 105 100 95 Index, 2005/06 = 100 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 Car driver trip rate Car driver travel time Car driver distance (trips wholly within London) Source: TfL Planning, Strategic Analysis. Figure 11.9 1.2 Car driver trip rates, inner, outer and all London residents compared. Car driver trips per person per day 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 Greater London Inner London Outer London Linear (Greater London) Linear (Inner London) Linear (Outer London) Source: TfL Planning, Strategic Analysis. Travel in London, Report 8 213
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