Travel in London Travel in London

12. Spotlight: The transport challenge of London’s future growth
12.2 The demographic backdrop: London’s changing population
Overall population growth
In 2015, London’s population topped 8.6 million, equalling the previous peak last
reached in 1939. Since 2001, London’s population has increased by more than 1.3
million people (18 per cent) – more than the entire population of Birmingham. This
growth has been much faster than was expected when the current MTS was written.
Figure 12.2 shows it rapidly outstripping 2009-based projections reported in the
2011 London Plan. The population projections in the 2015 London Plan have been
updated to be more in line with recent trends.
The 2013 round of population projections, and emerging 2014-based projections,
suggest a slight slowing in the future rate of growth in comparison with the last few
years, but see London reaching a resident population of 10.4 million in 2041. This is
the equivalent of adding both Birmingham and Glasgow to London between now
and 2041, which graphically illustrates the scale of the challenge.
Population growth will increase demand for travel. London residents make around
2.5 trips each per day on average, and so it follows that more people will mean
more trips on the transport networks – a total of 5.5 million extra trips per day by
Londoners in 2041 compared to 2014 if current average trip rates are unchanged.
Figure 12.2
Projected and actual population growth in London. 2015 London Plan,
using 2013 round of projections.
10.0
9.5
2011 London Plan projection
Population
2015 London Plan projection
Population (millions)
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
Source: GLA.
6.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Principal contributors to population growth – natural change and net migration
Natural change (an excess of births over deaths) has been, and will continue to be,
the primary driver of London’s population growth. Figure 12.3 shows the rate of
256 Travel in London, Report 8